Kalistan

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Opinion: What the New Egelian Empire means for Kalistan
Hint-- Probably not a lot says National Government
Kaliburg, Grand Duchy of Ananto
April 2 5688


Princess Regent Nicolette Ananto-Collins meets with her Foreign Minister to discuss Kalistan's Foreign Policy

Opinion: What the new Egelian Empire means for Kalistan

In our papers last month we read of the formation of a new Imperial organization to our immediate north: Egelian's new Empire. Of course there's a new Egelian Empire. That's not exactly news in Kalistani circles. Anyone paying attention to the various machinations Egelion has led in recent years could have seen that one coming. And of course Altea has declared itself the leader of this Empire. With Trigunia serving as Egelion's main cheerleader in Keris, and Kizenia fully puppetted after the Altea Conference, its really a surprise it took this long for Egelion to declare de jure what was already defacto obvious.

The real question we have to ask ourselves here in Kalistan and the Anantonese Empire is: What does this mean for Kaliburg, Ananto and Kalistan and the Anantonese Empire?

And the answer will surprise even our most "paranoid" (Egelion's favorite adjective for Kalistan, because apparently its paranoia to point out what everyone can see in front of our faces) nationalists. It doesn't mean a lot for Kalistan, like at all.

The event was actually publicly and diplomatically approved of in Kaliburg. Her Imperial Majesty's Foreign Minister, Sir Thomas Harney, touting the standard Institutionalist Party line like a good servant, issued a pretty bland statement acknowledging this apparently momentous event.

His statement said, in full:

"We congratulate the Egelion state on the formation of their Empire on the Continent of Keris. It is fine to see that someone else is finally following Kalistan's example in building more stable, multi national unions. They say that imitation is the highest form of flattery, and there is no greater flattery in this sense than being imitated by a truly great friend as Her Imperial Majesty's cousin in Altea. We are glad to see another Emperor with Ananto blood rise to our north, and we are proud that this region is utterly dominated by Anantos, in one form or another, as an Ananto now sits on the throne of Kalistan, Egelion, Kizenia, and Nadiya, sits as Viceroy in Gaduridos and apparently will soon also sit on the throne in Deltaria. Congratulations to the new Anantan Egelian monarch, and the new imperial master of both Nadiya and Kizenia."

This statement, which, while completely factually accurate, was rather tepid in its tone. It did not lay out any hint of Kalistan's alignment with regard to the new Empire. It only more or less reaffirmed Kalistan's commitment to Imperialism, as a concept. One would think if the Princess Regent were more concerned, the Foreign Minister would have had something more bellicose to say. To be sure, the Kalistani military expansion that our nation is currently undergoing gives us some hints, with naval and combat air under active procurement, talks for anti missile defense and Radar systems expansion, and the Logistics Base in southern Kizenia nearing completion. Kalistan's militia is active again, working on developing tactics that nations who adhere to the laws of war might say are pushing the line a bit, including practicing tactics that involve political violence and demolition, in response to an asymmetrical conflict scenario where Kalistan is outmanned and outgunned. But to date, none of those things are aimed north: Kalistan is merely beefing up, but they aren't necessarily pointing those guns at anyone.

Also telling is the lack of diplomatic activity in Kaliburg around this event. Except the Foreign Minister's statement, the Imperial Government seems to be more interested in expanding its circle of friends and sewing up the relationship with its few old friends, than responding as it historically does to dramatic shifts of the power balance in the region and in the world. Kalistan's response to the rise of fascism in Kundrati under the legion was rapid. Its response to Beiteynu's nuking of Xsampa, a nation we had almost no contact with at the time, was instantaneous. Kalistan is not, and has not been shy to use the sanctions pen when a nation does something it does not like. And yet, we see no hint that Kalistan is even planning any sort of diplomatic action against Egelion for swallowing nations the way drunk people swallow clams from the halfshell, without saying anything more disapproving than "Congratulations for copying us. That's very smart of you."

Could it really be that the Imperial Government is not concerned at all about the rise of the Egelian Empire in Keris? Is there perhaps a secret agreement between Kalistan and Egelion? We don't really believe so. The rise of Egelion's new Empire doesn't change anything really for Kalistan at this point. As much as nationalists will clutch their family jewels over this declaration, it ultimately made almost no splash in Kaliburg at all. Much to our chagrin at The National, but it seems nobody here really cared all that much. The KalSiE barely registered any change, noting in fact that it was probably good for petroleum stocks for a stable nation like Egelion to establish itself as the Imperial Master of a nation like Nadiya, which Kalistan views as a random actor in the world. But Kalistan doesn't trade with Nadiya, or even officially call it Nadiya, the FM's recent statements to the contrary notwithstanding. We have no diplomatic representation in that country, and haven't for a very long time. Egelion dominating the man-hating government of the Tundra doesn't really affect Kalistan at all, especially in a negative way.

Similarly with Kizenia: Kalistan broke diplomatic relations with the Kizenian government when the Monarchy was overthrown. Kalistan was waiting for a new, legitimate government to be established in Kizenia before it restored relations with that state on any level. The closest we have gotten so far was signing a Status of Forces Agreement with the Free City Government of Luncasi over the Logistics Port. But the Foreign Ministry was awaiting a new government, as in, not a provisional authority, before extending diplomatic recognition to the whole nation, as per the Altean Treaty. To date, that has still not formed. Instead, Egelion placed its King as the monarch of Kizenia. And so we continue to wait for the government of Kizenia to fully constitute itself, hold its elections, and do whatever it is planning to do to institutionalize itself. That may change soon now that Kizenia is fully puppetted by Altea, and then Kaliburg will instead likely extend recognition to the new Kizenian National Government through its Embassy to the Absolute Monarch of the Egelian Empire in Altea.

The silence from Kaliburg over the establishment of a new Empire directly north of it would be strange unless Kalistan legitimately did wish it well. Kalistan is not known for the duplicity that other powers frequently deploy. For example: we need only look to the claims that the constituent members of the new Egelian Empire will be "independent". Ok, sure. Independent, but they will also experience, what the King cum Emperor called "deeper Integration." We've all heard the lies about an Empire not being your "typical empire" in the past: Lourenne used to claim that about its Empire, and yet, strangely enough, all of its member states acted like good sycophants when the Mother Nation called them to do so, including weirdly enough, sacrificing their own national currency to adopt Lourenne's currency, thereby chaining their own national economic and monetary policy to Lourenne's for better or worse. It was a good idea, until it was a horrible idea, and most of the 5600s have been a story about nations who followed that disastrous policy promoted by their "not your typical" imperial Masters in Eroncourt recovering from the collapse of the Empire that tricked them all into sacrificing their sovereignty. Forgive us for doubting the word of a nation which has decided to become, as they themselves declared, Canrille 2.0.

Kalistan doesn't lie like that about its relationship with its constituent nations. According to the Articles of Empire, Constituent Nations are expected to coordinate with Kaliburg on foreign policy. Domestic policy remains the domain of the Constituent Nation, but foreign policy belongs to Kaliburg. And when it became clear, for example, that Lodamun, a former Constituent Nation, desired a more independent foreign policy, Kalistan and Lodamun parted ways amiably. No harm no foul. A common and coordinated foreign policy oriented on keeping Northern Seleya safe from foreign influence is the heart and soul of the Anantonese Empire. The Egelian Empire could easily just tell the truth about that: If a united Foreign Policy in Keris is their goal, why not just say it? Why try to maintain the facade that Egelion has some completely new idea about Empires, and their Empire is really quite different, when they are merely aping the played out Canrille rhetoric while functioning in many ways similar to the Anantonese Empire.

So: its quite likely that Her Imperial Majesty's Government actually is fine with this. But the Nationalists in Kalistan's government are not. Privately they are lobbying the Chancellor of the Empire, Lady Ericka Donahue, to get Her Highness, the Princess Regent, to take a more strident, and oppositional position on the formation of this new Empire. Nationalists argue that it does indeed change the balance of power in the region in Egelion's favor, and that Kalistani response is necessary. So far, the Chancellor has disappointingly shown no inclination to accede to her own base's demands: The far more moderate Foreign Minister, Sir Thomas Harney, however, has held at least three meetings with the Princess Regent, since the declaration in February.

So: as we close, let's do a little ad hoc theorizing to attempt to get a better understanding of what is driving Kalistan's non-policy response toward Egelion's puppetting of Kizenia and Trigunia. What if the Princess Regent was leaving the door open by not saying anything at all about it? The Princess Regent is not formally trained in her job. She's a surfer with a long reputation of enjoying mind altering substances. So-- could it be possible that she doesn't respond in the same way that Kalistani Emperors and Empresses have traditionally responded because she never was trained on how to answer this stuff from foreign rivals? For her to say nothing except "Good work, Egelion, you've done something smart" seems so out of character for a Kalistani Monarch that we find it strange that our editorial is on the opposite side of the question from what we can ascertain the Princess Regent's position, and therefore the Government of the Empire of Ananto and Kalistan is on. To be sure, the Editorial Board of The National thinks she should mobilize the Navy, pull our diplomats and place sanctions on Egelion for its egregious disregard for Kerisian sovereignty, despite is pledges to support sovereignty. But maybe the Princess Regent is trying something different.

If that is the case, we posit one or many possibilities that the Princess Regent is likely considering. She likely does not want a war. Nobody in this region thinks a war will be a good thing, not Egelion and certainly not Kalistan. So she will be looking for a new modus vivendi between Kalistan and the nation who has deliberately and gleefully cultivated the mantle of "Kalistan's rival" over the last few decades. Is she waiting for Egelion to come to Kaliburg? That's very unlikely. The message sent to Kalistan upon the death of the Emperor and Empress from Altea was far more than most nations bothered to do, but it didn't occasion any visits, decrease any lingering tensions, or improve any relationships between the two Anantonese Empires. It was polite and it was responsible, especially compared with Valruzia's formal offer to help us recover our lost monarchs out of the sea, and then their follow through on that offer the next summer, and then the extra step taken by our Seleyan allies this winter when the New President chose our nation to visit first, to cement a positive opinion of their nation and government with our People.

But keeping the door open works both ways. We would think this would turn into a race to court Kalistan. It probably should. Kalistan has correctly identified the formation of at least one power bloc months if not years before Egelion made it official. As a result, Kalistan has actively been promoting the Non Aligned Movement. A unipolar world is the least stable of all polar arrangements, unless the single polar actor is the global hegemon, capable of defeating all other nations combined. Egelion, for all its capacities, even with its new Empire, does not possess that power. There are a handful of states in the world currently that can match and even over power Egelion within their own spheres--Luthori is one of them, Vanuku another, Hutori another, Xsampa is probably another, Lodamun itself is probably another. Kalistan has predicted for some time now that any one of those powers, or several of them could coalesce into their own power bloc. To wit, Kalistan is promoting the anti-polar Non Aligned Movement, which several nations have recently signed onto as an effort to combat this type of bloc mentality of those who want to become the global policemen.

The Princess Regent may be waiting for another foreign nation to come try to court us as a counterweight to Egelion's expansionistic worldview. Kalistan doesn't bring a lot to the table with regard to capacity. Kalistan is now what people would call a middle power: We have a measure of power between Keris, Indrala and Dovani, where we are probably the largest player, but our influence and power doesn't extend far beyond that area. It's just a fact. We have fewer trading partners, we have money in fewer nations, and we maintain fewer overseas installations than Egelion does even. What Kalistan does bring is that its sphere of influence sits on an extremely important strategic cross roads, which Egelion also uses to spread its influence abroad. A nation that wins Kalistan's heart will automatically have influence in this part of the world.

Kalistan also knows its value. Egelion's hope is that Kalsitan remains neutral as it spreads itself all around the world. As long as Kalistan remains neutral, Egelion gets to do whatever it wants. Egelion knows that this neutrality is Kalistan's default, and it’s making a bet that Kalistan stays in neutral. But what would it take to change Kalistan's mind? Valruzia's very sincere moves toward Kalistan provide other nations a roadmap to court Kalistan: Our Seleyan partners show that Valruzia values Kalistan as much as Kalistan values itself. It shows Valruzia understands Kalistan, and views Kalistan as its equal, or in the words of the Philosopher, as an ends unto itself. Tel Bira's attitude toward Kalistan shows that they also see Kalistan as a valuable friend. Hutori has long played that game. And meanwhile, other nations arbitrarily call Kalistan "petty" "self centered" and "paranoid." Some people will find an automatic audience, some others will find polite explanations about scheduling conflicts that prevent its principles from meeting ours.

Perhaps this is the game the Princess Regent is playing in regards to Egelion's massive, and we will add, extremely threatening expansion. Amudim, the masters of the long game, would be so proud of her. For now the Imperial Government continues to remain silent. We want them to take a far more aggressive posture toward Egelion, but the Nationalist Chancellor, nor the Centrist Foreign Minister, nor the enigmatic Princess Regent are listening to the Nationalists right now. Clearly no other nations in Terra are listening either--they are also either silent, or are openly supportive of Egelian Imperial expansion.

We suppose that we will discover whether this policy leads Kalistan into another blind alley, and allows Egelion to outplay everyone yet again. We are hoping that, for Kalistan's and Seleya's sake, the Princess Regent knows what she is doing.

@TheNational