Valruzia

[Aethan]

President Pawlik announces referendum on her continuity

"People should have a say on whether I should continue on the role after 15 years or not"

November 5698

President Pawlik during an award ceremony

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As if Valruzia's political landscape had not been turbulent enough this year with the Barela-Gajda scandal, the failed motion of no confidence and the collapse of the government, this has now been compounded by the announcement made by the President of Valruzia, Urszula Pawlik, that she intends to use her constitutional prerogative to call a presidential referendum to decide on a matter of great importance: her continuity as President of Valruzia once her regular 15-year term, which expires in 5702, comes to an end.

The announcement, which took the entire parliamentary spectrum and the entire government by surprise, was made this morning in an official statement from the Presidency distributed to the media, the government and the Sejm Presidency. According to the Valruzian constitution, a presidential referendum "is one of the powers vested exclusively in the figure of the President of Valruzia that the Government has no power or veto over, and allows the President to interfere within the legislative and the Executive, putting the matter in question directly in the hands of the citizens". According to the law, the President may initiate it after informing the Sejm and may be organised on any topic, but may not contradict the rights and freedoms of Valruzian citizens as established by the Bill of Rights of the Republic, and as an act of secondary legislation the Plebiscite may be subject to judicial review by the Constitutional Court and may be overturned if found to be in violation of the Constitution or international treaties. It shall not carry the force of law until it is implemented as legislation by the Sejm, although the Sejm is not obliged to implement the results of the Plebiscite into law if a negative verdict is issued by the Constitutional Court. However, if they issue a positive verdict, the Sejm is obliged to implement it.

Marshall of the Sejm Luiza Kapinos, from Forward Valruzia – now at odds with the Barela government – has confirmed the reception of the petition, and has announced that she will now start the procedures to prepare it. Newly inaugurated Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Internal Affairs – and until now Minister of Foreign Affairs – Marcel Zagórski has said the government is aware of the referendum and will now work to ensure a smooth development, but he has said the government has "no comments" on whether they agree or disagree with the matter at hands. 

And what is all about? According to the last Constitutional reform on the Valruzian Presidency, the head of State is elected for a non-renewable 15-years term following a one-year long complicated system of five-stages multi-level indirect-direct process, with the final round being contested by one candidate per Voivodeship. The last – and first under this new system implemented in 5686 – elections were in 5687 and were won in the second round by Urszula Pawlik over Dawid Kala, becoming the first conservative head of State of Valruzia in a long time. This same law also states that the position is for a single non-renewable term of 15 years, after which a new President elected under the same method shall take over the role.

But now, President Pawlik seeks to challenge that last part of the law under the pretext of "popular will", as she claims that a direct popular endorsement would make a new presidential election unnecessary altogether.

According to the statement released by the Presidency, Pawlik’s interpretation is that a positive result in the referendum – defined as more than 50% of valid votes cast in favor – would constitute a renewed and sufficient mandate for her to remain in office beyond 5702, without triggering the complex multi-stage electoral process foreseen by the Constitution. In her words, "if a clear majority of Valruzians explicitly express their will for continuity, forcing an additional electoral process would be redundant, costly and disconnected from the popular mandate already expressed".

Pawlik said the initiative was not an attempt to "cling to office" but a way to simplify what she described as an "overly rigid and ceremonial" presidential succession system. She argued that the original intent of the 15-year non-renewable term was "well-intended" and aimed at preventing political bargaining around the Presidency, but says that a direct plebiscite would, in fact, be "the purest possible expression of democratic legitimacy". "This is a pure and simple yes or no question" she said, "by asking the people, openly and directly, whether they wish the current Head of State to continue serving".

"It is understandable that, in order to elect a new president, we must follow our electoral system. However, in situations such as this, where there is a president in office who wishes to continue in that role, I believe it would be more effective to first hold a referendum on whether the citizens of Valruzia wish to see that president continue. And I would love that".

This reasoning, however, has immediately alarmed constitutional scholars and much of the political class. Several experts have warned that Pawlik's interpretation would amount to a de facto circumvention of the Constitution, replacing a constitutionally mandated election with a single yes-or-no vote centred on one individual. "A referendum on continuity is not equivalent to an election" said one former judge of the Constitutional Court. "The Constitution does not recognize popular approval as a substitute for the procedures it explicitly establishes".

Political parties in the Sejm were quick to react to the news, with the Communist Party of Valruzia denounced the proposal as "personalist and institutionally dangerous", insisting that no popular vote can erase constitutional limits designed to prevent indefinite tenure, an argument echoed by Workers' Vanguard. Forward Valruzia, which had originally endorsed Pawlik as the conservative unity candidate in the 5687 presidential election, expressed a cautious yet explicit support for the initiative, with party leader and until recently Deputy Chancellor Fryderyk Konik argued that, while constitutional reform must be handled with care, "there is nothing illegitimate in consulting the people on the future of the head of State", and stressed that Pawlik's long tenure and good job justified opening a democratic debate rather than enforcing what they called a "rigid formalism", welcoming the proposal of "yes or no referendums" on current presidents. Several Forward Valruzia figures have also come to express support for this new way of referendum, as a "way to stabilize the system by confirming or rejecting the President's mandate directly".

Within the government, reactions remained deliberately muted. Deputy Chancellor Marcel Zagórski reiterated that the Executive would "respect the constitutional role of the Presidency" while underlining that "any outcome from this referendum must remain within the bounds of constitutional legality" but privately, senior officials admitted concern that a positive referendum followed by a refusal of the Sejm or the Constitutional Court to validate its effects could lead to an unprecedented institutional standoff.

Should the referendum go ahead to the polls and receive an affirmative vote, it would then place the Constitutional Court in a pivotal role, by either validating Pawlik's reading of popular sovereignty as sufficient to override the requirement for a new election, or reaffirming the supremacy of the existing constitutional framework. However, as the Constitution requires the Plebiscite to be organized concurrently with the first general election after the initiation of the Plebiscite and should a general election take place less than a year after the initiation of the Plebiscite, the Plebiscite shall be organized concurrently with the following general election; it is expected that the referendum has to be ready for the upcoming 5700 elections, a little more than a year from now.

According to latest polls, 51% of Valruzians say the "approve" or "strongly approve" of President Pawlik's tenure while a remaining 36% say the "disapprove" or "strongly disapprove" of it, with a 13% saying they don't have a formed opinion on the issue. According to flash polls, 42% of Valruzians would vote in favor of granting President Pawlik a renewed term while 39% would vote against.