Dundorf

[TheNick]

Werner's Center-Left Coalition Wins a Slim Majority in Bundestag
October 5698 (backdated)

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Federal Chancellor Matthias Werner (DSDP) addressing the Bundestag.

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Dunburg - Chancellor Matthias Werner's Social Democratic Party (DSDP) won the 5698 Federal Election and the center-left coalition it commands is projected to win a very slim majority of the members in the Bundestag (316). In the outgoing term, Chancellor Werner was leading a "wide" Grand Coalition composed by DSDP, the Hosian-Democratic party NDZP and the Green Party. The term has been characterized by inaction and the government mostly handed day-to-day affairs, a frustration that turned into a campaign issue in the late weeks, hurting mostly the old parties: NDZP and DSDP. The hard-left DRF and conservative KBP were the parties that mostly hammered the Government on this issue and tried to transform frustration into votes. It seems like it worked, based on our projections.

While DSDP and NDZP will both retain their status as the two most voted parties (24% and 20% respectively), this was the third election in a row where the two well-established parties lost support and their combined votes total to 44%, an historical low for two parties that used to get well above 50% of the combined vote just a few decades ago. The DRF surged into third position and was the party that registered the highest increase in vote share compared to four years ago, followed by the KBP and the TLD. The Green Party, despite supporting the outgoing Government, obtained a satisfactory result, increasing their votes and representation slightly. Surprisingly, the populist and anti-establishment Pirate Party lost a few votes, and was uncapable to rise the frustration wave like the other parties. Professor Louise Ardmann, a Political Science scholar at the University of Nordenhaus, explained to us: "Dundorfians were very frustrated with the inaction of yet another Grand Coalition Government which was the result of political fragmentation in the last election. The people identified the Pirate Party as an element of disruption, so they expressed protest votes towards parties that were part of a coalition, hoping to both send a message to DSDP and NDZP, as well as to assure that a coalition government could be formed."

But, according to the latest projections, the Center-Left Coalition (DSDP-GPP-DRF) has won a majority in the Bundestag, but it's one of the slimmest in history: 316 seats. The required number to elect a new Chancellor is exactly 316 members. This means that Chancellor Werner will need to assure its coalition partners and hope that every member will support him in the secret ballot to elect the new Chancellor. If that fails, he can always turn to another Grand Coalition, but with the increasing risk of the DSDP (and by incidence, the NDZP) losing votes and influence. President Lorena Oberlitz will invite the Chancellor to Karlottenburg Schloss as the leader of the most voted party, and he will let her know what his intention for the future is.

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5698 Dundorfian Federal Election
Turnout: 90.980.364 (81,2%)

DSDP: 21.735.504 (23,9%), 153 seats (-1,9% and -11)
NDZP: 18.046.352 (19,8%), 125 seats (-2,7% and -19)
DRF: 12.164.737 (13,4%), 84 seats (+1,7% and +10)
GPP: 11.564.902 (12,7%), 79 seats (+1,1% and +7)
KBP: 9.856.015 (10,9%), 69 seats (+1,2% and +9)
TLD: 8.946.413 (9,8%), 61 seats (+1,1% and +8)
PPD: 8.666.441 (9,5%), 59 seats (-0,5% and -4)

Possible coalitions (316 needed to win):
- Center-Left (DSDP-GPP-DRF): 316 /630
- Wide GroKo (DSDP-GPP-NDZP), incumbent: 357 /630