Badara

[Drax]

ELECTIONS LIKELY TO PRODUCE REALIGNMENT
 
MANARA  ALBRAYD SRIA AL-MUSAMI
(If it’s in the Monsoon, it’s got to be true)

Chancellor's Office, August 7, 5718:  The Monsoon asked Chancellor Ivrahim al-Marwan if he and his party, Israi Values (IV), were likely to try to hold the governing coalition in place going into the election with him serving as Chancellor, and he responded:
 

That is an unlikely outcome for several reasons.  The primary one is friction was present between the Working Institutional Group (WIG) and the Metzists of Majatra (MM) since the coalition was formed and it has only grown worse with the passage of time.  Do not believe any chance they will serve together again.
 
Second the Dufazi can fairly be described as the solely owned proprietorship of the Abadi Cleric Moqtada al-Dufaz who is quite old and very close to death. They really are not participating in anything but the death watch around him.  Since they hold a lot of power in Al’Salmania Muhafazah and a lot of influence among Abadis we expect the Dufazi to continue but not be part of the current negotiations.
 
The MM and the Free Radical Supper Club (FRSC)  look like they have reached an agreement and we expect the Forgotten Abadi Majatrans (FAM) to join them.
 
The WIG leadership had expected the Dufazi to be functioning and work with them to put together a governing coalition, but this plan obviously has come to nought.  WIG will be sitting this one out.
 
The question seems to be whether FRSC, MM and FAM can attract enough Independents to make a majority and form a government or whether they will need my party, IV, in order to reach a majority.
 
IV leadership is meeting very soon in my office to consider how  we would respond to an offer should it come.  My own view is there will be an offer to join a governing coalition led by FRSC’s Abdul Aziz as Chancellor.

The Majlis