Kalistan

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Republican Sentiment Rises following Artanian Disaster
Support for Emperor erodes as opposition to war increases
Kaliburg, Grand Duchy of Ananto
April 5, 5612


Anti-Imperial Sentiment is on the rise across Kalistan

The first nationwide public opinion polls taken, just 10 months after the disaster in the Artanian Sea and three months after the Official Report which placed the blame for the disaster squarely on Kalistani High Command, were released this week.  There is a sharp uptick in support for republicanism as an ideal and a sharp decline in public support for His Imperial Majesty, the Emperor Fredrick III Ananto.  Erosion of support for the war is driving much of the sentiment, says Dr. Lucas King of Kalistani Imperial University of Kaliburg.

"There is a direct relationship between variance of support for the war and support for the monarchy," said Dr. King.  "We noticed on generic questions, such as 'Are you living well?', 'Do you have enough time to spend with your family?' and this sort of thing, there is a general approval of the policies of the Government.  People are fairly contented.  But when you ask them the paired questions 'Do you support the Emperor's Administration of Kalistan?' and 'Do you support the War in Kundrati?' we tend to see an interesting phenomenon.  Depending on which question you ask first, support for the Emperor drops noticeable and significantly if you ask about the war first.  This suggests that the respondent is being primed, or in other words, that they tie the Emperor to the loss of the 4th Fleet in their minds.  There is general support, but on the question of the war, support for His Imperial Majesty will drop."

Dr. King stated that the drop in support for the Emperor after asking the question about the war is as much as 20% points, and the decrease is fairly robust.  "This suggests to me, 1) that people blame the Emperor for the war, and 2) that the war, to date anyhow is deeply unpopular.  Compared to pre-war opinion polls, we can attribute much of the decline in support to the disaster in the Artanian Sea."  Dr. King also noted that there is increasing sentiment for republicanism among those who oppose the war.  "An increase in support for republicanism in Kalistan from about 16% of the population pre-war to about 28% now is a significant increase, but again, this is tied to people's dislike of the war and their association with the Emperor to that conflict."  Support for Republicanism is only slightly lower if the respondent is not primed with the question about the war before being asked about republicanism, so the war itself still carries a residual effect that suggests that it is the most robust of all opinions.

Most people cited the Artanian Sea crisis for their change in attitude toward the war.  Others questioned the reasons for going to war in the first place.  "The Government did not do a good job of making those war goals clear," said King.  Others said they didn't blame Kalistan but Kalistan's coalition partners for not assisting.  "A good number of respondents said they thought the battle would have went differently had other nations stepped up and born some of the burden of the fight," said King.  "Having read the entire debrief myself, I am not sure this is entirely accurate, but most people are not military strategists, and only understand a vanishingly small part of the short summary they read in War Dispatches.  Ignorance doesn't affect opinion though."  Most people also cited pacifism as part of their Brethrenist Faith as a reason to oppose the war.

In all, Dr. King said, "These numbers should give His Imperial Majesty's Government some pause, but I feel that it should cause them to look for opportunities, rather than raise alarms.  In all, less than 3 in 10 now support republicanism.  They are still a very small minority of the population.  Without priming, public support for His Imperial Majesty remains in the high sixties.  Most people think he is doing a pretty good job and there is a deep well of support for the Royal Family in Kalistan.  His Imperial Majesty should capitalize on the support he does have, and make some changes that will address some of the concerns of the people.  I doubt that the Emperor will introduce regime changes, but he seems to be facing a problem of low morale, rather than a concern about institutional weakness.  So the things he may need to do will involve lifting the national spirit: something more than a music festival or some superficial thing.  A response that could help might be giving the people a sense of civic pride again."  

Dr. King stressed that the numbers suggested a major role for His Imperial Majesty in this effort.  "The Artanian Sea disaster really affected only a small percentage of the population directly, but it darkened the skies for the whole nation.  The Emperor could respond with a National Service drive, to give people something to work on collectively, where those affected by the malaise can mix in with those who are enthusiastic about the nation and who will lift their spirits.  If the Emperor leads this effort, he'll be able to shower the people of the nation with the credit when it succeeds.  If he disappears behind his walls and gates, he will get all the blame when it fails."

@TheRepublic