Istalia

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Elections 5630: PSD triumphs while rebranded FPI and FI face a collapse

Gaining absolute majority PSD's leader Annalisa Saragat is ready to lead the next government promising transparency and renewal

PSD celebrating the electoral victory

June 5630

The early elections of 5630 marked a turning point in national politics, with the Democratic Socialist Party (PSD) obtaining a landslide victory, winning 44% of the civilian preferences and 36% of the military ones and chosen as the second preference by the majority of voters, thus securing 264 seats and an absolute majority in Congress. A result that ends a decade of domination by the now former Istalian Patriotic Front (FPI), overwhelmed by the corruption scandal that shook the country and made the fall of the previous government inevitable.

The composition of the new National Congress is as follows:

PSD: 264 seats
UOD: 136 seats
PNC: 58 seats
PNL: 11 seats
IS: 6 seats

The percentage distribution of voting preferences was as follows:

Civil Lists (356 seats distributed)
PSD: 43,5%
UOD: 31%
PNC: 12%
PNL: 7%
IS: 6,5%

Military Lists (119 seats distributed)
UOD: 38% 
PSD: 33%
PNC: 20%
PNL: 9%

Although Cementopoli scandal has involved representatives of other parties in the past months, including the PSD, the fact that these involvements have been limited and mainly confined to the local level has not dissuaded the Istalians from considering the right-wing parties, which have led the country for a decade, the main responsibles for the climate of widespread corruption. This has contributed to a strong shift in consensus towards the opposition forces, rewarding the PSD in particular, and the alternatives within the center-right party, namely UOD which experienced a veritable boom among the military ranks, which in turn punished severely PNL but especially Istalian Phalange, whose local and national representatives were discovered to be among the most involved in the scandal.

The PSD, already on the rise in the last consultations, has capitalized on the climate of distrust towards the outgoing government forces, presenting itself as a guarantor of transparency and renewal. The result obtained is a historic event: for the first time in ten years, the new executive will not be led by the FPI or its coalitions, but by an alternative political force that has promised incisive reforms to re-establish the credibility of the institutions.

The FPI, after a national party congress held few weeks after the resignation of Floria Monaldi and of her last government, although it attempted a reorganization by transforming itself into the National Liberal Party (PNL), has suffered a dizzying collapse, stopping in fourth place behind the Hosian Democratic Union (UOD) and the New Communist Party (PNC), unable the new leader Valeriano Giunio to fully mend the damages of the corruption scandal despite his charisma. A result that marks a drastic reduction in the influence of what until recently was considered the hegemonic party in the country.

But if the collapse of the FPI was partly expected, even more disastrous was the performance of the Istalian Falange (FI), which suffered a real debacle, failing even to elect its own candidate. A defeat that could decree the end of this political formation, left without representation after years of supporting previous governments.

Another noteworthy detail is the result of Istalia Sovrana, which, despite seeing an increase in overall vote share, gained less than half the seats it held in the previous legislature. This is because in single-member constituencies with alternative voting, what matters most is strength in individual constituencies and transfers of votes. The increase was widespread but not sufficient to propel IS to the top positions locally, while the growth of UOD and PNC eroded its former strongholds and the flow of votes went elsewhere. Without military seats and with greater civilian competition, the party transformed more votes into "second places" rather than actual victories. Protests and criticisms for the voting system have been rising among the left-wing party since the results came in, but they are not the first to have complained for years about the system, which favors larger parties and those with candidates with more personal support, who assert themselves primarily in their home territories. IS has already promised to launch a national appeal to mobilize all those forces that continue to be excluded from parliament due to the system.

For the moment, however, with this result, the PSD is preparing to form a single-color government led by its National Secretary Annalisa Saragat supported by a solid parliamentary majority, marking the beginning of a new political phase for the country. The great unknown now concerns the stability of the traditional forces of the right and the center, which will have to profoundly rethink their role and their strategies to try to get back on track after an election that has completely redrawn the national political balance.