South Dovani

[Wu Han]

Business Report Poll: NEWP and PIE Struggle, While HP and JP See Major Gains

Voters continue to punish the parties of the previous government, while gains go to new parties on the right and left

10 Nov 5365

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South Dovani: South Dovani’s fractious political landscape continues to shift as the latest Business Report poll reveals a continued decline for both the New Elephant Worker’s Party (NEWP) and the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (PIE). These parties had led South Dovani’s last coalition government, but have now lost a significant degree of support from those who voted for them previously, leading to gains for the Homeland Party (HP), the Justice Party (JP), and the Strong Nation Party (SNP). 

The poll recorded who voters supported in the last election, and who they intend to support in the scheduled 5637 election. The results show that the NEWP, which has been out of power since 5631, would receive 9.8% of the vote if the election were held today – a precipitous drop of 9.2 percentage points from its 19% share in the last election. Similarly, the PIE, which has participated in both the previously NEWP as well as the current Patriotic Alliance-led government, saw a drop of 4.6 percentage points to 6.2%. Voters identified lingering resentment towards the government of Chandra Srirai, as well as internal party leadership turmoil in both the NEWP and PIE, as a leading cause of their dissatisfaction with both parties. 

In contrast, two relatively new parties are gaining ground: the conservative Homeland Party (HP) and the left-wing Justice Party (JP). The HP saw a significant rise in support, gaining 9.4 percentage points to reach 13%, with much of the success attributed to HP leader Anawin Jantarapong. Despite his party’s small seat count in the National Assembly, Anawin has been effective in rallying nationalist sentiment and positioning the party as a key player in the broader conservative eco-system, given his personal popularity and media savviness. Much of the support for the HP comes at the expense of the PIE and National Development Party (NDP), both of which have seen nearly a third of their supporters switch to the HP. 

The JP, led by former labour law professor Thaksin Luang, also made impressive gains, moving up by 7.2 percentage points to 12.6%, mainly at the expense of the NEWP, but also more established left-wing parties such as the Revolutionary Alliance (RA) and Progressive People’s Union (PPU). The party has garnered support from younger, union-affiliated, and urban working-class voters, with this poll signalling an increasing consolidation of left-wing support behind Thaksin’s JP. 

Another notable development in the poll is the rise in support for the militarist Strong Nation Party (SNP), under the leadership of retired Army General Baroma Thannajaro. The SNP, which has positioned itself as the party of law and order, as well as bringing stability to the eastern provinces, has attracted a notable degree of support from voters previously affiliated with the nationalist Hanzen Heritage Party (HHP), and to a lesser extent, voters previously aligned with the PIE, NEWP, and RA. The support of some left-wing RA voters is explained by the fact that left-wing factions previously loyal to the RA exist in the army, with many in the Army holding the first President of South Dovani and RA founder Surasak Darawan in high regard as the "founding father" of the modern national army of the republic. Increasing support for the SNP is associated with voter dissatisfaction over the government's inability to resolve long-running insurgencies in the East, particularly with the UPM once again on the rise. 

Perhaps the biggest winner is Prime Minister Prasert Thanomchai. While his United Conservative Front is down one percentage point, support for his party remains broadly high, while support for centre-right to right-wing parties has risen across the board. Nevertheless, with nearly two years until the next general election, much can change in South Dovani's ever-evolving political scene. 

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Finance Minister Vitaya Kongsangchai Challenges PIE Leader Rak Khemanich for Party Top Spot

Minister Vitaya has threatened to leave his party if its leader, Rak Khemanich, refuses to hold a leadership election

12 Nov 5365

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Udon Nakhon, South Dovani: Tensions within the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (PIE) have reached a boiling point as Finance Minister Vitaya Kongsangchai has called for a leadership election, challenging party leader Rak Khemanich’s position. In an unprecedented move, Vitaya has threatened to leave the PIE if Rak refuses to hold the vote, further exacerbating the growing discontent within the party over poor poll performance and waning finances. 

Vitaya, who has held the Finance Ministry through two different coalition governments, has grown more ambitious over time as his profile has risen nationally. Vitaya is most known for spearheading South Dovani's transition to a market-based economic system as the architect of South Dovani's privatization scheme, the National Economic Renewal Initiative. Despite his influential role in radically reshaping South Dovani's economy, his time in office has been marked by tensions within his party. Despite being seen as a capable technocrat, Kongsangchai has clashed with party leadership over policy directions and strategy, especially as the party's support has waned: the latest polling data from Business Report indicates a sharp decline in support for the PIE, down to just 6.2% from 10.8% in the 5631 elections, likely contributing to Kongsangchai’s growing frustration with Khemanich’s leadership.

This challenge comes at a critical time for the PIE, as its influence in the ruling coalition has diminished in the wake of the political shift towards more nationalist and right-wing parties, such as the Homeland Party (HP) and the Strong Nation Party (SNP), both of which have seen notable rises in support in recent polling on the back of the PIE's decline. While Rak Khemanich has served as Deputy Prime Minister under the PA-led coalition, the PIE’s dwindling influence outside of the National Assembly has weakened his position. Many significant donors of the party have also reportedly shifted their support to the HP and SNP, with the PIE reporting its lowest fundraising numbers since 5622. Vitaya himself comes from the influential Kongsangchai business family, which has long financed the PIE. Vitaya's father and CEO of the family's holding company, Somphop Kongsangchai, announced that the family would withhold its donations to the party until it "has a leadership team prepared to set the party on a stable footing." 

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Business Report (ข่าวธุรกิจ) is a news agency headquartered in the Udon Nakhon Financial District. The organization is ideologically committed to liberal economics, and is targeted at South Dovani's financial industry and business elite.