Anantonese Journal of Economics and Theory

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Hegemonic Stability in the Anantonese Ocean: How rising rivalry decreases Security
Alberto Montaña-Crespo, Ph.D. Kaliburg Imperial University
Linda Rodriguez-Blanco, Ph.D. Instituto de Teoretica Social, Ciudad de Gaduri, Gaduridos

Synopsis-
The rising rivalry between the Empire of Ananto and Kalistan and the Kingdom of Egelion in the Northern Anantonese Ocean is a robust case study in Hegemonic Stability Theory. The theory states that hegemons provide stability-- A system is most stable when a hegemon exists, because the hegemon provides order, continuity of policy, and security over a system. Instability increases as other states look jealously upon that hegemon and seek to undermine it for their own ends. War and chaos are the result of that instrumentalist policy practiced by other states directly against the hegemon. In this case, Ananto is the long standing hegemon, which has ensured peace, order and continuity in the Northern Anantonese Ocean for hundreds of years, while Egelion, a nation that was utterly irrelevant a mere 60 years ago, has become home to a cadet branch of the Lourennais Royal Family, who immediately began making strides to undermine that order for their own goals. As predicted by the theory, the upstart is attempting to undermine the stability of the regional hegemon, and the results will be instability and a return to disorder caused by the rising power's desire to replace the old hegemon in the region.

Introduction-- Historical Facts
First, a few historical facts. The Empire of Ananto and Kalistan was founded, as a matter of fact, with the coronation of the first Grand Duke of Ananto, Fredrick Guerra, who took the title and name Fredrick I Ananto in 5159. Several generations of direct descendants passed, and the Empire transitioned to a republic for 149 years and then the Empire was restored under the direct descendant of Fredrick, Nicolette I Ananto, also known as "The Great" in 5458. Kalistan has been an absolutist imperial state ever since making this particular regime 479 years old, 330 of those years which have been under the control of the House Ananto.

A cadet branch of the Orleans-Vassar ruling family of Lourenne was installed as king in Egelion in 5591. Before that, Egelion was notable for not being notable at all. It was controlled for a long time by a place holder government which the Orleans-Vassars easily replaced without a protest from the placeholder government. This makes the Egelian Crown 47 years old, 47 of which have been ruled by the House Orleans-Vassar-Montalivet-Sildavia.

The Theory-- Hegemonic Stability
The theory of Hegemonic Stability says that the existence of a hegemon is usually predictive of stability in a system. This stability is posited to be something that is positive: The Hegemon sort of keeps everyone in line. Major wars do not happen in a hegemonic stable system: The Hegemon can easily punish all those who attempt to defect within a system. A Hegemonic system is not free of wars: We just happen to see less war for a number of reasons:

1. Hegemonic power can easily defeat anyone who goes against the system. In terms of hard power, the hegemon possesses a predominance of it. Wars are easier for the hegemon to win. Peace terms can more easily be dictated to maintain the position of the hegemon. And the threat of hegemonic intervention makes war a much more costly policy option than some peaceful method of resolving disputes.
   
2. Regime consonance is a real thing within a hegemonic system. Nations often attempt to conform their regime types to mirror the successful hegemon. Consonant regime types can more easily communicate with one another, they can more easily conduct talks, they are more friendly with one another, and there is less conflict that we see among widely differing regime types.
   
3. Trade tends to be freer with a higher volume in a hegemonic system. Since it is understood that there is usually consonance on trade policy in a hegemonic system, the cost and uncertainty of trade is greatly reduced. This tends to tie nations closer together, as trade usually does, and tends to suppress the impulse for war.
   

Again: hegemonic systems are not free of wars, they simply tend to see less war and greater stability.

Conversely, as hegemons fall, you tend to see more war and more instability. For all of the above reasons, but inversely.

There are several ways for hegemons to fall. One is internal disputes, usually over power and resources, where the hegemon is undermined from the inside. Another way, and this is the method the Kingdom of Egelion is using against Ananto and Kalistan, is to undermine the hegemony, or straight up challenge it externally. Whether the hegemon is actually declining or not, it really doesn't matter, because an external challenge to the hegemon forces the hegemon to address it. For the rising power, any defection is just another step on their mission to replace the hegemon. If they don't gain an ally, it doesn't undermine their quest at all. But for a hegemon, any defection is an existential threat to the Hegemon. It weakens and undermines the hegemon, and this weakening and undermining is the direct cause of the instability that results in the hegemon no longer being able to hold the system together through its hegemony. Soon other break away, and eventually you either get a war, or a new hegemon.

Additionally we also know that to prevent this, Hegemons will often start wars to weaken their rivals. As the Hegemon is perceived to be weakened, it may lash out at its rival, take steps to stop its rival from rising at its expense, and regain its predominance in the system. The decision to do this is understandable, but it is a function of being undermined and the alteration of the status quo in a system. Stability begets stability, turbulence begets turbulence. Hence, Egelion's policy of challenging the Hegemon, for whatever reason, will be the source of any regional instability going forward. In structural realism terms, Egelion is opting to balance the hegemon, where most states who value hegemonic stability, will have opted to bandwagon with the hegemon. The choice to balance represents a change in the system's structure, and therefore causes insecurity and instability in that system which has, to this point, been governed by bandwagoning behavior.

And to be clear, this choice to balance is 100% Egelion's choice, and they could absolutely do something else if they wanted to. We say this because Kalistan would never do anything itself to encourage Egelion to attempt to balance power against Kalistan given that Kalistan is the hegemon.

Hegemonic Competition- The Junior can only win if it unseats the Senior
Empress Carolina I Ananto had been Empress of Ananto and Kalistan for 14 years already when King Amadeo I Montalivet was declared King. In fact the Empress attended his coronation, along with her Husband and Daughter, Princess Michelle Ananto-Sandoval, who is currently the head of House Ananto and the aunt of the Current Empress of Ananto and Kalistan, Empress Mary I Ananto. By all measures, the crown in Egelion is far younger than the crown in Kalistan.

When the Kingdom of Egelion was created, Kalistan was already involved in a long standing conflict in Kundrati, which was in fact that land of Empress Carolina's birth. Egelion sat that war out and contributed nothing to its prosecution or settlement. To this date, Egelion has contributed nothing to its prosecution or settlement. Which is fine, as this is Egelion's foreign policy, though Egelion is supposedly an avowed defender of democracy internationally, and even held a conference claiming to support democracy and oppose extremism, which the Empire of Ananto and Kalistan was regularly mentioned in the same breath as totalitarians in Artania. In other words, Kalistan was a power with a nearly global reach when the Kingdom of Egelion was in its infancy.

It is undisputed that within the Anantonese Ocean, Kalistan has maintained hegemony. Hegemony, for our purposes means military, economic, political, and cultural predominance. No other nation has come close to surpassing Kalistan in these categories over the past century. The sharp decline of Lourenne opened the door for Kalistan to move to center stage, and this is a position that Kalistan has jealously guarded, because, for better or worse, Kalistan is completely convinced that it is under threat at all times from external forces, and the further it can move the possible battle fronts from its home territory, the more secure it feels. This drive has been beneath most of Kalistan's foreign policy for more than a century, and has led to Kalistan seeking to build political, customs and security arrangements with neighboring nations that ensure that Kalistan can station naval forces well beyond its immediate borders, that they have access to trade from multiple sources to allow for a high degree of self sustainability, and that their neighbors can also withstand determined threats from beyond their borders.

This hegemony has led to widespread peace in the Anantonese Ocean region, even as wars occur in Artania, Majatra and Dovani. That widespread peace has in turn led to widespread prosperity, for not only Ananto and Kalistan, but also Lodamun, Gaduridos, Lourenne, Egelion, and Dolgava, with growing prosperity in Northern Seleya and Western Dovani, even in states which have chosen to remain outside the Empire. The only exception is Baltusia, which has deliberately chosen a monk's existence under aberrant syndicalist government. It was Kalistan and her allies' willingness to continue to fight not only to push Artanian imperial configurations out of Northern Seleya, but also satellite states of intolerant totalitarian regimes, that provided this stability in the region.

Now it would seem that a new power, which views itself as rising, feels the need to do so not only right on Ananto's Doorstep, but also at Kalistan's expense. This upstart rising power threatens the stability of Kalistani hegemony, though indirectly at this time. In charting a self-serving course that is independent of and in opposition to the hegemonic system that has kept the Ananontese Ocean basin quiet for centuries, the Kingdom of Egelion's aim is clear: It seeks to recreate the power and influence of the previous hegemon in the Anantonese Ocean, Canrille under Lourenne, which Ananto and Kalistan itself replaced following the sudden withdraw of Lourenne from world affairs. At that story, Kalistan was the upstart rival, and greatly profited from Lourenne's sudden abandonment of the role of regional hegemon: In fact, Kalistan got the role almost by default. But the failure of one hegemon in this sense did not lead to regional instability, but instead settled it.

In this system, hundreds of years later, Kalistan is being challenged for regional hegemony by in many ways the successor regime to Lourenne, the upstart Egelion. The difference this time is that Kalistan and Lourenne had been rivals for a long time, but then Lourenne suddenly dropped out. Kalistan is not interested in giving up the role of Hegemon in this region. And it will likely fight to keep what it has built, though the comparative newborn crown in Egelion would prefer to replace Kalistan. The attempt will certainly lead to instability in the region, just as Kalistan is withdrawing from its involvement in Artania.

Will this lead to instability? A timeline of a largely one sided relationship
There is the argument to be made that if someone can actually unseat a hegemon, is that hegemon really a hegemon? After all, a Hegemon is defined by a preponderance of power. In other words, several rivals together wouldn't be able to take down an actual hegemon, let alone one that is less than 6 decades old, who is a relative newcomer to the regional system.

So if Egelion could actually take Kalistan down by forming its self-serving alliances around Dovani, then perhaps Kalistan has already declined from Hegemonic Status. At this point, Egelion has merely not been enthusiastic about associating itself with Kalistan, and is seeking to do things that would allow it, with heavily blurred vision, to appear to have achieved something close to parity with Kalistan.

And in fact, other nations may be looking at Egelion as a pawn they could use to externally balance against--A prospect that Egelion at least appears interested in. Some such external rivals would be Dorvik, who has long yearned for a permanent position in the Anantonese Ocean, or Luthori who is obsessed with regaining its dominant position in Northern Seleya, if no place else in the world, or one of the many city states in Beiteynu or the Kingdom of Lourenne, both of whom would look to exploit Egelion rising power to regain their control of international finance and trade. In all these cases, the Empire of Ananto and Kalistan stands in the way, and has for a very long time. And Egelion may just see its interests met in allowing itself to be used like this--If successful that would mean Kalsitan has already declined.

But: Kalistan is almost forced to respond at any rate. It is clear from recent dustups that Kalistan at least no longer trusts Egelion and is increasingly concerned that indeed Egelion seeks to replace Kalistan. Whether Egelion actually wants to or not is anyone's guess: It would seem that a person who vocally claims that they don't want to replace the hegemon would be the first person a reasonable person would suspect of wanting to do just that. Recently, Egelion has stated that Kalistan's fears are "asinine" and utterly, and rather contemptuously dismissed them out of hand. But the Egelian foreign minister did say something in this same article that is very telling of Egelion's motives:

"We are not here to rival Kalistan, but to make a name for our country. If they cannot handle our foreign policy they have two options, accept it as it is, or get out of the way."

It is this very sentiment, which was so freely and candidly expressed by one of the more important people in Egelion, and which is assumed to be the actual position of the King of Egelion, which does indeed pose an existential situation for Her Imperial Majesty, Empress Mary I Ananto. Earlier in the article, the source stated that Egelion has only ever cooperated with Kalistan, but this is not really true. We found evidence that Egelion has only cooperated with Kalistan on one thing of Kalistan's doing. On the other hand, Kalsitan was one of the earliest and long standing supporter of things Egelion sought to do, including the early investments into the Egelian Banking system, the Altea Conference, which Kalistan attended despite being blasted for its non-democratic regime by several of the attendees, including Egelion, and various other projects that Kalsitan attempted to assist with but were ignored by Egelion.

(Continued Below)