02-05-2025, 08:37 AM
(Continued from Above)
In fact, a summary of Kalistani news sources bears this fact out:
Since 5589, there are a total of 23 items listed here of interaction between Kalsitan and Egelion. Of this list, 13 items are positive, and 10 contain negative news. Kalistan visited Egelion 10 times over this period, Egelion visited Kalistan 5 times, and a full 40% of those 5 visits was just the Queen, who is the cousin of the Kalistani Royal Family. Also there are 4 stories of Kalistan helping Egelion somehow, and only 1 story, the account of Egelion Participation in Northern Lights, where Egelion helped Kalistan out with anything. This can easily be said to be a lopsided relationship at the very least, and more recently under Romulo I, it has been far more lopsided and negative than under Amadeo I. Therefore, the contentions of deteriorating relations seems to be supported by the data available.
Does it have to end up in conflict between the two states? Not necessarily. But a Kalistani monarch looking at the history of the decline of relations between Kalistan and Egelion, especially after 5612, will tell you that the conflict is already here, and the window to resolve it is likely almost closed entirely. This is the result of the regional hegemon reaching out time and again to try to integrate a rising power into the regional structure, and that rising power becoming more and more insistent not only on standing apart from the regional system, but actively challenging the Hegemon for dominance in the region. It tends to support the narrative offered by Hegemonic Stability Theory.
Conclusion-- Ways Forward
Looking at this list, Kalistan has reached out time and time again, to get Egelion to integrate into the regional system. Egelion's response has been cordial at best. When Kalistan was doing more than state visits, it was propping Egelion institutions up. Egelion in turn joined the world in criticizing Kalistan for standing up to Kundrati fascists, at the loss of going on more than 50,000 casualties over the entire Kundrati conflict, and meanwhile taking the opportunity to distance itself from Kalistan on several fronts. It maintains it is an active supporter of both the main treaties of regional integration, though the only person who seems to think so anymore is Egelion's High Councilor Formoselle, who stated emphatically something that his own Government does not even confirm on their website. Meanwhile, Egelion is creating its own completely independent integration treaties with Dovanian nations, while criticizing Kalistan for its imperialism.
The Councilor asked rhetorically in his speech against the Kalistani Monarch recently "Does Kalistan think the world revolves around them?" He quickly answered his own rhetorical question with an emphatic "No." But the fact is: As long as Kalistan remains the hegemon, the world kind of does revolve around it. Egelion may not like this fact, and the actions they are taking now demonstrates that they likely resent this fact, but none the less, it is a fact.
It is highly likely that Egelion's policy, if it is driven by a desire to supplant Kalistan as the regional leader, will drive reaction in Kalistan. That reaction will not be pretty or peaceful for anyone. Because whatever Egelion thinks it is doing, or says it is doing in public despite planning something completely different in private, the policy nonetheless has the effect of creating a security dilemma for Kalistan. Kalistan will not simply accept it or get out of the way. Those two choices are unacceptable in Kaliburg.
In short, if we could offer a word of advice to the Egelian Crown: Don't treat the Empress like she is a spoiled child and this is all just a temper tantrum on the Empress part. Empress Mary is responding exactly how political theorists would predict a threatened hegemon would respond given the long standing series of neglect and provocation her Government has received since before she became Empress. This isn't an insane or irrational response. Hegemonic Stability Theory can predict precisely how she will respond. It also will tell everyone what the outcome will be. Egelion will not be able to replace Kalistan in a friendly or passive way, the way they may have been trying to do so far.
Yes, the Councilor Mondragon was correct when they said this: "I, however, understand that Kalistan sees a threat in our rise as a power. This is not about alienation, it is about control. Kalistan feels threatened." Mary, as the Embodiment of the Hegemon absolutely does feel threatened. And she is absolutely governed by a desire to maintain Kalistani hegemony in the region. But the threat, whether the Egelian Government wants to acknowledge it, is coming completely from Altea.
Instead of calling her response asinine, or inconsistent, or making her out to be an irrational lunatic, as the Egelian Ministers certainly did in their article, perhaps take a look at the evidence provided here, understand this is what Her Imperial Majesty is seeing, and do something other than making vague threats and demands for capitulation from the Empire, whose regime is far older than Egelion's. We believe that the Empire has long demonstrated a desire to work WITH Egelion. We believe that the litany presented above demonstrates that. We believe that the Empire has overlooked a lot of incidents that could be considered at the very least turning Egelion's back on people they claim to be friends with, while Kalistan has gone out of its way to visit, to try to include Egelion in regional affairs, to participate in things that improve the economy and reputation of Egelion, and to ensure the security of Egelion.
In short, whatever the Empress thinks, we believe it is not too late to repair the relationship which is heavily damaged by carelessness, ambition, and maybe misperception, but more likely a full historical understanging from a perspective that you don't happen to care much about. This tension started in Altea, it can easily end there with a sincere attempt to simply reach out and discuss differences, and make an actual effort to work together rather than against the Hegemon.
It doesn't have to end the way that Hegemonic Stability Theory suggests it will. But it most certainly will if Egelion doesn't make an effort to pull back from doing the things that don't matter much at all to Egelion, but represent existential threats to Kalistan. It costs them nothing to be cordial to Kalistan. It will cost them a lot to continue to make an enemy of Kalistan, whether or not they believe that Kalistan is justified in its concerns. At the end of the day, until Kalistan is a third world nation with no government, no military, and no economy, Kalistan perceives what Egelion is doing to be hostile toward Kalistan directly, especially if Egelion makes no effort what so ever to offer their self proclaimed "friends" any kind of consideration or accommodation, and instead mock the Empress for feeling threatened.
Perception is reality.
In fact, a summary of Kalistani news sources bears this fact out:
- The first mention of Egelion in Kalistani papers is in 5589, where Empress Carolina stated that Egelion has not reached out to Kalistan for any reason at all despite Kalistan's support for the rising monarchy there.
- The next article detailed Dana Ananto's investment of 50 Billion Imperial Rubles in Egelian bank Santomar.
- The next mention was about Carolina and Dame Bolton's 5601 visit to Egelion to attempt to secure passage of AESA.
- The first time the Egelian Monarch visited Kalsitan was 5603 as part of a multi-nation stop through tour, where there was some discussion around cultural exchange, though there is no evidence that anything on either side of the Anantonese ever came out of it. During the same visit, Egelion announced that they would join the Anantonese Security Community, though, like the AESA, there is no evidence that they actually did join it or contributed anything at all to either of those two treaty institutions, except statement in a newspaper claiming that they had been in these two treaty organizations all along.
- Crown Prince Fredrick and new wife Monica honeymooned in Egelion in 5606.
- In 5610, Kalsitan sent an envoy to Egelion begging for assistance in a war that was about to begin in the Artanian Sea: no assistance of any kind was forthcoming from Egelion, or any other state Kalistan sought help from at that time.
- The Egelian Monarchs did return to Kalistan in 5611 for the Coronation of Fredrick III Ananto.
- In 5614, Egelion was mentioned as a member of the ASC during a visit to Dolgava, though nothing further was said about their membership or participation on any substantial level, and certainly no help was forthcoming from Egelion as Kalistan fought its war against the totalitarians in Kundrati and Likatonia.
- In 5618, the Kalistani Emperor and his spouse visited Egelion to pay respects to the late King of Egelion, and to invite the new king to visit Kalistan.
- The disappointment of Egelion's failure to support Kalistan in any way at all in the Kundrati conflict simmered under the surface, but Emperor Fredrick III Ananto expressed concern at Egelion's courting of Dorvik by 5623. It seems that this willingness to publicly speak out against Egelion's growing distance from Kalistan was evidence of a much deeper separation which had already begun behind the scenes, that started when Egelion joined several nations in the world at the Altea Conference to condemn extremism and regularly and routinely placed the Empire in its lists of authoritarian states that the Conference was supposedly convened to oppose. By 5623, warm, albeit largely one sided relations between the two nations had deteriorated to the point where Kalistan felt the need to comment on them in public.
- That same year, Nicole Ananto, the daughter of Lady Dana Ananto, who was Gaduri Viceroy, agreed to marry the new king, Romulo I following several visits to Egelion. The marriage was one that seemed a natural fit. But it papered over serious concerns in Kalistan at the time at what felt like a growing independence in foreign policy, but in retrospect, was not new, or minor in anyway on the part of Egelion.
- In 5626, the couple was married and the royal family attended the wedding in Egelion, but warmer relations with Kalistan did not result.
- In 5628, the Royal Family congratulated Romulo and Nicole on the birth of their twins.
- In 5628, the Kalistani Foreign Minister was once again back in Egelion attempting to get Egelion to sign the AESA, a trip which would have been unnecessary had Egelion already signed it--In Egelion's newspaper, they claimed that they had been a part of the treaty regimes for "Decades", though the source they link was Egelion's account of the visit, dated 5629, which was in fact only 9 years previous to the writing of the Egelion paper, and is confirmed in Kalistan from the same period. Again, both papers tell of the visit in the attempt to secure Egelion accession to the treaty. Again, there is no evidence that the treaty was ever actually signed, nor is it listed on their FM's website.
- Also in 5629, Kalistan invited Egelion to participate in Operation Northern Lights, the large scale naval exercise, and it is reported that Egelion did participate in that exercise later that year.
- The King and Queen of Egelion finally visited Kalistan to attend the memorial service of late Kalistani Emperor Fredrick III Ananto in 5631.
- In 5632, the Queen of Egelion attended the Coronation of Empress Mary I Ananto, but the King skipped the event, to personally oversee missions in New Englia.
- In 5635, when Egelion had a bombing that wounded Queen Nicole and the Crown Prince, Kalistan offered assistance with intelligence to help hunt the terrorists. The offer was not remarked on outside of Kalistan or accepted, though Nicole did eventually convalesce at the Baronetcy in Eveari County.
- In 5637, Egelion outbid Kalistan for infrastructure development assistance in Tukarali.
- Also in 5637, the Egelion Government criticized Empress Mary Ananto as "inexperienced" which was an oblique criticism of Kalistani involvement in a war they had, to date, taken no interest, stance or comment on, nor did they critique anyone else involved in the ongoing conflict.
- Later, despite growing tension, the King and Queen visited Gaduridos to attend the funeral of Dana Ananto, the Queen's mother. There was no report of any conversation between Empress Mary and King Romulo at the funeral.
- The launching of the Institute of Egelian Diplomacy which is clearly aimed at advancing Egelion Policy independent of regional policy in Dovani, and the glaring omission of the two major agreements between Kalistan and Egelion in 5638 was reportedly the last straw in a long simmering conflict, prompting Lady Waltrip's 5638 speech and finally bringing it all out in the open.
- Egelion's inflammatory, anti-conciliatory speech that responded confirmed for Kalistan that its long held suspicions were completely correct, and to date there has been no effort by either side to walk back the statements or seek reconciliation.
Since 5589, there are a total of 23 items listed here of interaction between Kalsitan and Egelion. Of this list, 13 items are positive, and 10 contain negative news. Kalistan visited Egelion 10 times over this period, Egelion visited Kalistan 5 times, and a full 40% of those 5 visits was just the Queen, who is the cousin of the Kalistani Royal Family. Also there are 4 stories of Kalistan helping Egelion somehow, and only 1 story, the account of Egelion Participation in Northern Lights, where Egelion helped Kalistan out with anything. This can easily be said to be a lopsided relationship at the very least, and more recently under Romulo I, it has been far more lopsided and negative than under Amadeo I. Therefore, the contentions of deteriorating relations seems to be supported by the data available.
Does it have to end up in conflict between the two states? Not necessarily. But a Kalistani monarch looking at the history of the decline of relations between Kalistan and Egelion, especially after 5612, will tell you that the conflict is already here, and the window to resolve it is likely almost closed entirely. This is the result of the regional hegemon reaching out time and again to try to integrate a rising power into the regional structure, and that rising power becoming more and more insistent not only on standing apart from the regional system, but actively challenging the Hegemon for dominance in the region. It tends to support the narrative offered by Hegemonic Stability Theory.
Conclusion-- Ways Forward
Looking at this list, Kalistan has reached out time and time again, to get Egelion to integrate into the regional system. Egelion's response has been cordial at best. When Kalistan was doing more than state visits, it was propping Egelion institutions up. Egelion in turn joined the world in criticizing Kalistan for standing up to Kundrati fascists, at the loss of going on more than 50,000 casualties over the entire Kundrati conflict, and meanwhile taking the opportunity to distance itself from Kalistan on several fronts. It maintains it is an active supporter of both the main treaties of regional integration, though the only person who seems to think so anymore is Egelion's High Councilor Formoselle, who stated emphatically something that his own Government does not even confirm on their website. Meanwhile, Egelion is creating its own completely independent integration treaties with Dovanian nations, while criticizing Kalistan for its imperialism.
The Councilor asked rhetorically in his speech against the Kalistani Monarch recently "Does Kalistan think the world revolves around them?" He quickly answered his own rhetorical question with an emphatic "No." But the fact is: As long as Kalistan remains the hegemon, the world kind of does revolve around it. Egelion may not like this fact, and the actions they are taking now demonstrates that they likely resent this fact, but none the less, it is a fact.
It is highly likely that Egelion's policy, if it is driven by a desire to supplant Kalistan as the regional leader, will drive reaction in Kalistan. That reaction will not be pretty or peaceful for anyone. Because whatever Egelion thinks it is doing, or says it is doing in public despite planning something completely different in private, the policy nonetheless has the effect of creating a security dilemma for Kalistan. Kalistan will not simply accept it or get out of the way. Those two choices are unacceptable in Kaliburg.
In short, if we could offer a word of advice to the Egelian Crown: Don't treat the Empress like she is a spoiled child and this is all just a temper tantrum on the Empress part. Empress Mary is responding exactly how political theorists would predict a threatened hegemon would respond given the long standing series of neglect and provocation her Government has received since before she became Empress. This isn't an insane or irrational response. Hegemonic Stability Theory can predict precisely how she will respond. It also will tell everyone what the outcome will be. Egelion will not be able to replace Kalistan in a friendly or passive way, the way they may have been trying to do so far.
Yes, the Councilor Mondragon was correct when they said this: "I, however, understand that Kalistan sees a threat in our rise as a power. This is not about alienation, it is about control. Kalistan feels threatened." Mary, as the Embodiment of the Hegemon absolutely does feel threatened. And she is absolutely governed by a desire to maintain Kalistani hegemony in the region. But the threat, whether the Egelian Government wants to acknowledge it, is coming completely from Altea.
Instead of calling her response asinine, or inconsistent, or making her out to be an irrational lunatic, as the Egelian Ministers certainly did in their article, perhaps take a look at the evidence provided here, understand this is what Her Imperial Majesty is seeing, and do something other than making vague threats and demands for capitulation from the Empire, whose regime is far older than Egelion's. We believe that the Empire has long demonstrated a desire to work WITH Egelion. We believe that the litany presented above demonstrates that. We believe that the Empire has overlooked a lot of incidents that could be considered at the very least turning Egelion's back on people they claim to be friends with, while Kalistan has gone out of its way to visit, to try to include Egelion in regional affairs, to participate in things that improve the economy and reputation of Egelion, and to ensure the security of Egelion.
In short, whatever the Empress thinks, we believe it is not too late to repair the relationship which is heavily damaged by carelessness, ambition, and maybe misperception, but more likely a full historical understanging from a perspective that you don't happen to care much about. This tension started in Altea, it can easily end there with a sincere attempt to simply reach out and discuss differences, and make an actual effort to work together rather than against the Hegemon.
It doesn't have to end the way that Hegemonic Stability Theory suggests it will. But it most certainly will if Egelion doesn't make an effort to pull back from doing the things that don't matter much at all to Egelion, but represent existential threats to Kalistan. It costs them nothing to be cordial to Kalistan. It will cost them a lot to continue to make an enemy of Kalistan, whether or not they believe that Kalistan is justified in its concerns. At the end of the day, until Kalistan is a third world nation with no government, no military, and no economy, Kalistan perceives what Egelion is doing to be hostile toward Kalistan directly, especially if Egelion makes no effort what so ever to offer their self proclaimed "friends" any kind of consideration or accommodation, and instead mock the Empress for feeling threatened.
Perception is reality.
Primary: Institutionalist Party of Kalistan (IPoK), 5146-
Inactive:
Socialist Party of Kalistan (SPoK), 2591-
Inactive:
Socialist Party of Kalistan (SPoK), 2591-