Valruzia

[Aethan]

Uncertain future after election night: SW and KPW in a dead heat

A 0.17% margin after all 84 million votes counted pits the two most-voted formations against each other

January 5660

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10:01pm
Welcome all people from Valruzia and those watching from abroad to yet another electoral night here in TVW! As polling stations have now closed, we are expecting votes to start coming in, and in a few hours, we will know the full results of these 5660 Valruzian general elections, the first ones where the new system for the election of the five new Presidents of the Valruzian republic will also be in place. I am Iwo Karlik and you are watching TVW1. I have with me Jakub Stankus, Maria Kamrowska and Cecylia Winarska, who will be my partners for the electoral analysis of tonight. Welcome all! First of all, Maria, what can we expect from tonight's results, or what do you expect?

Maria Kamrowska: Well, unlike other countries, Valruzia does not have exit polls at this moment, at least publicly available, but according to people I've been talking to, tonight might be a very very special night for one party in particular. We will have to wait only a little bit.

Jakub Stankus: This election also marks the 30th anniversary of the first elections to the Sejm, and 30 years as well for Sovereign Valruzia in power. That's more than what the dictatorship of Mateusz Morawski lasted, and that's saying something.

10:24pm
Cecylia Winarska: We’re starting to receive partial results from the least populated regions – Chynberg and Kampania. None of them are strongholds of the ruling Sovereign Valruzia, but if the trend is confirmed, Chancellor Zuzanna Kosowska might start to worry already. Also, there is an unexpectedly high turnout for KPW, which seems to have energized its base, particularly among younger voters.

Iwo Karlik: That’s interesting, Cecylia. The youth vote has been a wild card in these elections, fueled in part maybe by promises from those parties who have not been in power. That generation has also not lived the Morawski dictatorship, which might now start to be a major factor in consecuent elections. Furthermore, tiredness might start affecting Sovereign Valruzia after 30 years in power. Jakub, what do you make of this early data?

Jakub Stankus: I think it signals a major shift, Iwo. KPW’s resurgence has been notable this cycle, riding a wave of promises for social reforms and economic equality. They’re clearly closing the gap with SW. If this trend holds, we might be heading toward a political earthquake.

10:49pm
Iwo Karlik: As results from Valusia and Ruzia are starting to come in, there is a major announcement already: with 90% of the votes counted, the KPW has won over 50% of the vote in Kampania. This is the first time since the democratic restoration that a major party in Valruzia has achieved this in any region. Not even Nowik in his best times, falling close in Valusia in 5550. Let's not forget this as well – paradoxically, the KPW's main candidate this time is Iwan Nowik, precisely Nowik's son.

11:14pm
Maria Kamrowska: Chynberg and Gryfit are all but counted. And while Chynberg has not presented huge shifts in its voting pattern, Gryfit is bringing news: the main dominant forces in the region, Forward Valruzia and Sovereign Valruzia, which made up almost 75% of the vote in the last elections, have fallen to a combined vote share of 57%, while the KPW and Valruzian Alliance have both double their vote share. Quite an statement I believe.

Cecylia Winarska: And that's not the only news. In Kampania, Valruzian Alliance has surpassed Forward Valruzia to become the largest right-wing party in the region, collecting over 14% of the vote. Now, the Communists and the far-right made up for almost 2/3 of the vote in the small northern Voivodeship. That's something that political analysts will study for sure.

Jakub Stankus: And things are not looking good for Sovereign Valruzia. Still, Valusia and Ruzia are counting, and they are SW's main strongholds. If results coming from these two regions underperform Chancellor Kosowska's expectations, she might consider tonight as her fateful night.

11:51pm
Iwo Karlik: It's almost midnight and Valusia and Ruzia's results are coming in slower than expected. But we can confirm one thing: these elections have seen the lowest participation figure since Valruzia's democratic transition at 77.18%. Will this also serve to explain some of the results we are seeing today, Cecylia?

Cecylia Winarska: For sure. Valruzian Alliance's results might represent a big mobilization in the conservative voter, who have seen that Forward Valruzia, despite being the leading force of the opposition for many years, have failed to achieve anything meaningful, and therefore are turning further right. And that's just an example.

11:54pm
Jakub Stankus: We have meaningful results from Ruzia! KPW is lagging half a million votes behind Sovereign Valruzia, but it has become the second strongest party in the region, surpassing Forward Valruzia. Furthermore, the far-right of Valruzian Alliance has won a seat in Brzansk, which all our viewers will know as the city were the military revolution against Morawski dictatorship started.

Maria Kamrowska: As for Valusia, it might be the region where Sovereign Valruzia is holding its feet a little bit more. But also, and it's not something we are talking much about, Dignity and Progress might be on its way to get its best result in 20 years! If reports coming stay this way, the party is now above Valruzian Alliance in Valusia, the only Voivodeship where the party has managed to do so, a result that will basically be what saves the party by adding more deputies than it had previously.

00:09am
ALL RESULTS ARE IN. With 29.96% of the vote, Sovereign Valruzia and Chancellor Zuzanna Kosowska remain as the most voted political force in Valruzia. But only by a 0.17% margin, less than 150,000 votes out of the more than 84 million citizens that have gone to the polling stations. The Communist Party of Valruzia, led by Marshall of Kampania Iwan Nowik, has managed to finish second with 29.79%. Far-right Valruzian Alliance has also doubled its previous result, which added to the slight 0.15% decrease in the vote to Forward Valruzia points to a slight inclination of the Valruzian population to the right. However, the left still accounts for more than 60% of the vote. But now, let's go to the different party headquarters to see what's happening!

SW Headquarters, Nowogard:
Olga Koralewska: Good night, Iwan, we are here at the SW headquarters in central Nowogard, where Chancellor Zuzanna Kosowska just stepped onto the stage a few moments ago to speak to her supporters. In her speech, she has said that Sovereign Valruzia has once again won the trust of the majority of Valruzian citizens and remains the first political force of the country, willing to start talks to form a new government led by her party as soon as possible. Although there has been many applauses, cheers and celebrations, the mood here has been tense until the very end, when the much-expected results from Valusia have finally come. From the people that I've talked to, many have privately acknowledge that there is a huge challenge now ahead, and that there's no easy way to follow now. With the party falling below the 30% threshold, this is their worst result since the first 5630 elections, and overall the party has lost 10 million votes in just a decade.

SW has won two Presidencies of Valruzia.

KPW Headquarters, Szary Kamien:
Emil Kasperek: A very different mood here in Szary Kamien, capital of Kampania and stronghold of the KPW. Iwan Nowik, who has just been also reelected as Marshall of the Voivodeship, has delivered a fiery speech just a few minutes ago, where he has mentioned that the party already warned Sovereign Valruzia that Kosowska was not Szymon Nowik and that now "Valruzians want change after 30 years". Speaking among chants of "Nowik, Nowik!" and "Time for change!", Nowik has also claimed the chance to form a government, despite acknowledging that they are not the most voted force. He has said that a 0.17% difference is as "small as it could get", and the party will demand a recount in key districts to see whether there are 150,000 votes left behind. He has also already informed Sovereign Valruzia that negotiations will be "extremely difficult" and that the KPW will not accept breadcrumbs in exchange. As the results of Kampania came in, shouts and cheers erupted from the crowd reunited here, and for a reason. The KPW has got its best result ever and has won over 8 new million voters.

KPW has won one Presidency of Valruzia.

NW Headquarters, Nowogard:
Julia Broz: The feelings here in NW are quite different from those. It's a somber, if not grim, mood. Party leader Anastazja Nabozny has addressed supporters less than fifteen minutes ago, in what can only be described as a cautious and self-critical tone. Acknowledging what he called “a clear message from the voters”, Nabozny has admitted that Forward Valruzia must now undergo serious reflection if it is to remain a relevant force in Valruzian politics. This is important because the party, born as a coalition between National Renewal, National Salvation and Agrarian Voice, is now performing with worse results than these three parties had previously achieved when they were separate entities, before 5645. Although the party has only lost a fraction of its vote share, the symbolic blow is heavy – falling below a 24% threshold and surpassed not only by the KPW but also challenged closely by the far-right Valruzian Alliance in Ruzia and losing to them already in Kampania. In fact, in Kampania, the party has fallen to fourth place – a historic low. While some party veterans are calling for patience and unity, others, especially younger figures, are pushing for a strategic realignment to confront both the left-wing resurgence and the radical right, with one aide close to Nabozny confessing to me that many believe they "cannot just keep being the moderate voice of the opposition", they need to become its engine.

NW has won two Presidencies of Valruzia

SWA Headquarters, Nowogard:
Olaf Pabian: Joy and chants of "Valruzia for the true Valruzians!" have filled the air here in Valruzian Alliance headquarters. Roksana Krysiak has taken the stage here to celebrate what she has called "the start of the patriotic awakening" in front a wave of Valruzian flags – and some inconstitutional symbols, who have been swiftly removed by party members upon seeing them. Ratajczak hasn't mince words, as she has stated that Valruzian Alliance is the voice of 8 million Valruzians who are tired of the lies and government of Sovereign Valruzia, with each statement being received by thunderous applause. The Alliance has doubled its previous result and gained seats even in urban strongholds previously thought out of reach including one in Brzansk, a highly symbolic win given its role in the fall of the Morawski dictatorship. While the party is still far from their best result, this is indeed the best one in 20 years. The most celebrated result? Of course Kampania, whose regional leader has taken the stage and has threatened Marshall Nowik to "watch his back".

GiP Headquarters, Nowogard:
Sylwia Gajda: The atmosphere here at the modest GiP headquarters in Nowogard is one of cautious optimism. After two decades of electoral stagnation, the centre-left, green-leaning Dignity and Progress has recorded its best result since 5640, especially driven by a surprisingly strong showing in Valusia, where the party has overtaken the far-right Valruzian Alliance. Still, it has won only 31 seats, the smallest party in the Sejm once more. Party Faustyna Sabala has spoken earlier tonight to a modest crowd of supporters and volunteers, many of them visibly emotional, and she has said that tonight they have proven that there is space in Valruzian politics for empathy, ecology and a form of modern and moderate progressive voice, and she has also taken time to thank younger voters and first-time participants in the election. Still, they know that once again their votes are not needed for any potential coalition, and not even for Constitutional modifications since they would still be below the 2/3 requirement.

Iwo Karlik: Thank you everyone for this insight. Now, what can we expect?

Maria Kamrowska: There are not that many options. Either we continue with the SW-KPW coalition or Sovereign Valruzia manages somehow to get Forward Valruzia involved back into some kind of agreement. Nowik seems pretty sure about becoming the next Chancellor, but I do not really see the options there.

Jakub Stankus: There is one option though: a rotating Chancellery, with two years and a half for both Kosowska and Nowik. It's strange, but could work. Still, I have the feeling that this time, Sovereign Valruzia will have to look into other places for the votes. I believe that the Communist Party is going to ask for so much that SW will see it as not worth the effort, and the KPW will take the opportunity to capitalize on the opposition and come back in five-years time.

Iwo Karlik: Still, for those of you who are watching us and don't know this, Valruzian Constitution does not allow full early elections. Instead, if early elections are called, they will serve only to fulfil the time period until the next ones are to be celebrated in a five-year timespan. And indecisive time starts now. What will be the next Valruzian government, and who will lead it? Thank you for staying tuned with us, and good night!

FULL RESULTS ARE DISCLOSED BELOW

CHYNBERG

5660 Valruzian legislative election results:
Turnout: 75.64%

Forward Valruzia (FW): 2,782,095 votes (36.37% 1.13%). 21 seats ( 1)
Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 2,341,528 votes (30.61% 1.09%). 17 seats ( 1)
Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 1,474,951 votes (19.28% 7.3%). 11 seats ( 4)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 619,387 votes (8.10% 1.08%). 4 seats ()
Dignity and Progress (GiP): 294,384 votes (3.85% 0.89%). 2 seats ()

KAMPANIA

5660 Valruzian legislative election results:
Turnout: 79.15%

Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 5,609,481 votes (50.94% 8.96%). 37 seats ( 7)
Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 2,087,673 votes (18.96% 7.05%). 14 seats ( 5)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 1,559,893 votes (14.17% 6.54%). 10 seats ( 5)
Forward Valruzia (FW): 1,187,895 votes (10.79% 1.44%). 7 seats ( 2)
Dignity and Progress (GiP): 449,966 votes (4.09% 0.97%). 3 seats ( 1)

GRYFIT

5660 Valruzian legislative election results:
Turnout: 74.33%

Forward Valruzia (FW): 4,914,731 votes (32.74% 3.47%). 38 seats ( 5)
Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 3,886,752 votes (25.89% 9.47%). 30 seats ( 12)
Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 3,537,856 votes (23.57% 12.74%). 28 seats ( 16)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 1,812,769 votes (12.08% 6.76%). 14 seats ( 8)
Dignity and Progress (GiP): 707,842 votes (4.72% 0.57%). 5 seats ( 1)

RUZIA

5660 Valruzian legislative election results:
Turnout: 76.32%

Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 6,316,831 votes (32.44% 3.79%). 49 seats ( 6)
Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 5,738,558 votes (29.47% 10.42%). 45 seats ( 16)
Forward Valruzia (FW): 4,086,326 votes (20.98% 1.35%). 32 seats ( 2)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 2,105,111 votes (10.81% 5.76%). 16 seats ( 9)
Dignity and Progress (GiP): 947,269 votes (4.86% 0.31%). 7 seats ()

VALUSIA

5660 Valruzian legislative election results:
Turnout: 78.91%

Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 10,558,542 votes (34.12% 3.23%). 73 seats ( 7)
Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 8,687,782 votes (28.08% 7.44%). 60 seats ( 16)
Forward Valruzia (FW): 7,175,605 votes (23.19% 2.60%). 49 seats ( 5)
Dignity and Progress (GiP): 2,125,665 votes (6.87% 3.95%). 14 seats ( 8)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 2,018,390 votes (6.52% 2.77%). 14 seats ( 6)


COMPLETE ELECTION RESULTS, 5660

Turnout: 77.18%

Sovereign Valruzia (SW): 25,191,326 votes (29.96% 4.77%). 184 seats ( 31)
Communist Party of Valruzia (KPW): 25,048,628 votes (29.79% 9.31%). 181 seats ( 59)
Forward Valruzia (FW): 20,146,652 votes (23.96% 0.15%). 147 seats (3)
Valruzian Alliance (SWA): 8,115,550 votes (9.65% 4.5%). 58 seats ( 28)
Dignity and Progress (GiP):  4,525,126 votes (5.38% 1.46%). 31 seats ( 8)