Kalistan

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Opinion: Kalistan's Continued Role in the Terra
Is Retrenchement in Ananto's Future?
Kaliburg, Grand Duchy of Ananto
March 8, 5665


Her Imperial Majesty, nearing retirement, looks to Kalistan's future and her legacy

This is an editorial by The Kalistani Republic's Editor in Chief, Marcia Weller. Ms. Weller's views are her own and does not reflect the official position of The Kalistani Republic, which is journalistic objective neutrality on all matters related to the news and the the Government. -KR

Her Imperial Majesty the Empress Mary I Ananto turns 55 years old this year, and in the civilian sector, 55 is the age of retirement. There is no indication that the Empress is prepared to retire from office for at least another seven years, but as the Crown Prince finishes national service and begins the process to replace the Empress on the Throne of the Anantonese Empire, one has to believe that she is now considering what sort of legacy she intends to leave to the next generation of Anantonese Emperors.

To take honest stock in where the Anantonese Empire sits, Her Imperial Majesty still retains a significant amount of absolute power within the region. Even though it is continuing to conduct a naval evaluation that will likely lead to at least some amount of retrenchment, to include reduction in fleet size and possibly a return of Bentasur to Gaduridos, the Kalistani Regular Navy is still the premier force in the Anantonese Ocean. Egelion possesses some advantages with regard to the ability to project its power, and the Lodamese Navy focuses its naval superiority to the west rather than the east of its territory, but Kalistan still retains four major battle fleets currently operating within the Northern and Central Anantonese Ocean, as well as a fortress mentality with overwhelming artillery and a respectable mobile tactical force including partisan irregulars who are constantly and obsessively preparing to repel an invasion, and have been doing so for centuries. With these assets, Kalistan maintains a high level of regional security.

But: politically, Kalistan has been greatly weakened even within the region. Far from its zenith during the Likatonian conflict, the Empire itself has more or less fallen apart. AE is an empire in decline, having lost Lodamun decades ago and with Gaduridos following Kaliburg's lead usually less than happily. The inability of Kalistan to not only capitalize upon, but exert any level of influence over events in Rildanor shows a state outmaneuvered by a conflict that it could not effectively even address, due to long standing national interests, none of which were served by Kalistani intervention. Consequently, it was unable to resist the establishment of a permanent external presence in Meriath, and unwilling to accommodate or prevent a quasi fascist state from taking hold in Seleya. And furthermore, it had to merely accept Gaduridos publicly criticizing Kalistan and forcing capitulation in Kaliburg to leftist populist demands in Ciudad Gadur.

The failure of the Empress to push Kalistani interests to the forefront of Anantonese Affairs heralds an eventual break between Kalistan and Gaduridos and the ultimate collapse of the Anantonese Empire as a transnational organization. AE has already earned the moniker "Empire in Name Only" by some of the more moronic international pundits, but even some Kalistanis are questioning the continued interest of Kalistan toward the Anantonese Empire. Deputy Miguel Blanco of Spencer asked "What do we gain in Kalistan from trying to keep a state clearly more interested in going its own way like Gaduridos tethered to Kalistan? The imperial relationship was long ago snapped off, Gaduridos is getting much bolder in its foreign policy, and has demonstrated no real interest in seeking Kalistan's input on virtually anything. The Southern Kingdom is following the same path towards ultimately breaking ties with Kaliburg that Lodamun did earlier in the Empress' reign, so maybe it is time to cut Gaduridos loose to sink or swim on its own, and retrench here in Kalistan." His position, while still a fringe opinion, seems to be growing within the Empire of Ananto and Kalistan, not shrinking.

Kalistan does maintain security agreements with Gaduridos however. The Kalistani Navy defends Gaduridos and ensures that it can focus nearly all its resources on domestic development, which has been a boon for Gaduridos since the reign of Carolina I Ananto. Kalistani investors, primarily House Ananto's front Miramar, have invested more than a trillion Imperial Rubles into Gaduridos at every level of its industry, to help local capital turn the nation from a forgotten and neglected equatorial republic into a thriving nation that others seek out in its more than century with Kalistan. Removal of Kalistani capital from the Island would likely devastate both Gaduridos and Kalistan economically. Needless to say, there is plenty of reasons for Kalistan and Gaduridos to remain tied to one another.

But there are also plenty of reasons for Kalistan to re-evaluate its position in the region. With Egelion and Lodamun each approximating modern day super power status able to project their military might globally, and no other serious contenders in the region in terms of raw power, what is there left for Kalistan to defend? "The Security Doctrine of Kalistan is that the entrances to the Anantonese Ocean be closed to Artanians and Majatrans," said Deputy Blanco. "Lodamun has massive fire power in its literal navy sitting right in the Karzon Strait. Egelion happily patrols the waters between Keris and Dovani, and now they also patrol the southern approach to the the Strait from the base they illicitly acquired as a result of their little police action in Rildanor recently. Seriously, there is no reason we ought to be duplicating their forces, when both of those nations are more than willing to spend such huge amounts of money to build and operate pure projection forces around the globe. Kalistan can and should save that money we're spending and put it toward improving our own nation rather than footing the bill for preponderance of force that we don't need, and merely serves to back up what other nations are doing."

Critics of retrenchment have dubbed this attitude expressed by Blanco as "free-riderism" while others have called it "isolationist." But those who are calling for retrenchment are getting louder in public. The recent top to bottom review of Naval assets and forces shows that concern about over spending is reaching even the top echelons of Government. The order to review forces is believed to have come from Her Imperial Majesty herself, who is reportedly rather concerned that Gaduridos is slipping away, and who is annoyed that Kalistan was checkmated in Rildanor by Egelion and the quasifascists on the mainland.

"Her Imperial Majesty is more concerned about the balance of power in the region than others are," said Foreign Policy Professor Dr. Mike Lee, of Suldanor Duchy University. "Both Egelion and Lodamun conduct their affairs without regard to any sort of concept of security dilemma. Both states act with impunity in their respective theaters when cooperation would go a million miles to reduce uncertainty here around actions. There doesn't seem to be a shared vision for the Anantonese Ocean region outside of 'don't get in anyone else's way,' and of course the Empress' protests fall on deaf ears anyway. Kalistan has been marginalized significantly by others, and Kalistan doesn't appear to be in a position to do much about it. Naturally this is concerning to those in Kalistan's political institutions who wish to continue to show Kalistan's relevance on the world stage. It's a proposition that is getting harder to sell with each passing day."

Could anything be done to arrest this decline? It is not entirely certain that Her Imperial Majesty wishes to. Coming to power when Kalistan was truly the unquestioned hegemon, Mary nonetheless also inherited a number of geopolitical obstacles and crises which were beyond her control, and which inexperience and a desire to try something different created openings for others to take some advantage of. The Empress will be known for many things, but they are almost all domestic, not international. At the end of Mary's reign, Kalistan is more Empire-weary than Empire-seeking, and Her Imperial Majesty, ever haughty, as Emperors and Empresses are wont to be, seems to be more focused on adorning her Nation with brilliant gemstones than with asserting Kalistani power abroad. So the answer to the question is, probably not.

The end of the Anantonese Century will come not with a bang, but with a whisper of acquiescence. Rising powers do not look to Kalistan for our opinion any longer. We have a navy that is far too big for its current mission imperatives, and which is not even invited to contribute to regional security any longer. We are sidestepped by our own Constituent State in Gaduridos whenever possible. Kalistan may not be able to unravel itself from Gaduridos any time soon, but the shine of that relationship has been buffed clean off by a leftist populist party which is clearly not happy being tied to the Empire any longer, nor feels any traditional obligation toward it at all. And all this despite Kalistan trying to hold everything together that it once had.

But when the end finally does come, whenever that is, in either the near or distant future, will the Anantonese Empire be missed? There are tens of millions in multiple places around the world who mention a collective "no" to that question, though they gleefully ignore all other questions emanating from Kaliburg. But more and more in Kalistan itself, a pro-isolation, pro-retrenchment wing also answers "no" under its breath. To speak against the Empire is akin to blasphemy within Kalistan, and whatever republicans in the region wish to do, Absolute Fiat rule will be safe and secure within Ananto and Kalistan. But some Kalistani's patience with our neighbors is running out, and a growing call to pull back in the region to our traditional role of only caring about Ananto and Kalistan and leaving others to fend for themselves seems to be gaining some traction even at the highest levels.

This may very well be the legacy, at least internationally, that Her Imperial Majesty passes to Fredrick, when he takes the throne as Fredrick the IV. A much diminished Anantonese Empire, a greatly diminished role in international affairs, and a smaller footprint in Terra. That would certainly suit whatever is left of Kalistan's international rivals. It certainly would be horrible for regional security, the economy of Northern Seleya, and the prestige of Kalistan. But it also may be inevitable.

A collapse of the Anantonese Empire tomorrow would send major economic shockwaves through the region and the world. It would open up a massive hole in the ocean which Kalistan would then be unwilling to fill, and it would likely turn two former partners firmly against one another. There are a million reasons to stay together, and no reasons to split, but even that may not be enough, because as voices for retrenchment and isolation grow louder in Kalistan, after the spat over Istalian trade in 5659 which barely measured waves in Gaduridos but sent tsunamis through Ananto, there are seemingly fewer and fewer voices at all in Gaduridos anymore for union, except perhaps the Viceroy. And the Empress.

Retrenchment and Kalistani isolation may be an inevitable fate that nobody can afford or seeks out, but are unable and unwilling to stop.

The current line on a split inside the Anantonese Empire within the next 20 years, from Sulari bookmakers, by the way is still a longshot at +1850. Five years ago it was +6350.

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