Amudim: Changing World Order

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[GreekIdiot]

The Common Characteristics of Dorvish/Beiteynuese Declining Patterns

Yishelem, Neset Institute - August 5575
By Prof. Ishmael Yap'er

If we recall back to 5200 - 5350, in regards to Dorvik:

1. The Konigreich's position was first challenged by the Homeland State of Beiteynu - that's our declining #2 pattern (position lost)
   
2. Dundorf, Luthori, Lourenne, Kundrati followed in subsequent decades - that's our declining #1 pattern (leverage on events lost)
   
3. Domestic strife and turmoils sealed its irrelevance on international affairs
   

By observing Beiteynu's affairs in the same span of 150 years from 5450 to 5600, we can detect the same patterns:

1. The Homeland's position was first challenged by the Commonwealth of Lodamun - that's our declining #2 pattern (position lost)
   
2. Xsampa, Istalia, Baltusia, SocIntern followed in these last few decades - that's our #1 (leverage on events lost)
   
3. Domestic strife and turmoils: Prime Minister is currently in a coma
   

Looking at both, we can surmise for both cases:

1. One leading riser first pushes the one former leading riser - in both Dorvik and Beiteynu's cases, the dispute has been over the Migrant's Pass - the assumption here is that in the rise vs fall pattern, there seems to be a keen geopolitical region of interest close to home
   
2. Following risers take further chances in geopolitical events and then domestic turmoil ensues from a "being cornered effect"
   
3. Overall span does seem to be 50 years - first challenge, then in the next 50 years, the final decline
   

Observations which can help us, perhaps, to predict the future...

[GreekIdiot]

Cycles of polarity: chaos and order

May 5666 - Neset Institute of Yishelem
By Prof. Prego Yap'er

We can all feel it. Something is brewing, and has been brewing for a couple of decades now. Through this institute's past observations on the declining patterns of Dorvik, Beiteynu [and now Lourenne], we can now witness a full cycle coming to an end.

1. When there is 1, there is a need for chaos
   
2. When there are many, there is a need for order
   
3. When there is 1, there is a need for chaos
   
4. When there are many, there is a need for order
   
5. When there [...], there is a need for [...]
   

Dorvik's fall to Beiteynu's rise was a simple psychological need to break the norm of a single entity - hence why middleman tactics were pivotal to driving Yishelem to notoriety.

After breaking the norm, those chaotic tactics came in direct conflict with Eroncourt's institutionalised order. Ground zero became Seleya (the keen geopolitical region of interest already observed like the Migrant's Pass for Dorvik and Beiteynu) and order became victorious.

The world fell into hibernation, dominated by Canrille. As Lourenne's watchful eye started looking more inwards, the rest of the world itched in the pursuit of their interests. Chaos sprung up again, and it is what we've been observing, as the need for order rises up again.

Ergo, the next stage of the cycle is, as history shows us, an order by 1, and a need for chaos soon after. And to be more precise:

1. When there is 1, there is a need for chaos = we want to counter / no power sharing (Dorvik)
   
2. When there are many, there is a need for order = we want to stabilise / power sharing is confusing (B&L)
   
3. When there is 1, there is a need for chaos = we want to capitalise / power sharing is available (Lourenne)
   
4. When there are many, there is a need for order = we currently want to solidify / power sharing is confusing (-)
   
5. When there is 1, there is a need for chaos = we will want to counter / no power sharing (?)
   

But until then - we will get that order by the 1. And data shows us the 50-year countdown has already began.

The question is, who's the 1.

-

Additional summaries are available on nesetinstitute.com.

[GreekIdiot]

Hourglass of Power

May 5666 - Neset Institute of Yishelem
By Prof. Prego Yap'er

Originally used by a board game, a few scholars decided to slightly adjust for the purposes of the CWO. Copy and paint.



As an example, here's the drain Amudim is currently in:

[GreekIdiot]

Cycles: Who are the new hegemons?

November 5682 - Neset Institute of Yishelem
By Prof. Not'agen Yap'er

Picture this:

1. 5200-5250, we had hegemony by Dorvik
   
2. 5250-5300, we had a transitional period under Dorvish-Beiteynuese guard change
   
3. 5300-5350, we had multipolarism after Dorvik diminished
   
4. 5350-5400, transition again under Beiteynuese-Lourennais guard rise
   
5. 5400-5450, hegemony by the B&L
   
6. 5450-5500, transition again under another Beiteynuese-Lourennais guard change (Hubris War)
   
7. 5500-5550, hegemony again, now by Lourenne
   
8. 5550-5600, transition yet again after Lourenne diminished
   
9. 5600-5650, multipolarism springs up once more
   
10. 5650-5700, you guessed it, this is a transitional period once again under a guard rise
    
11. 5700-5750, hegemony by many?
    
12. 5750-5800, transitional guard change of powers fighting for the throne?
    
13. 5800-5850, hegemony by one?
    

By the looks of it, we are definitely - 100% - looking at some sort of hegemony after 5700, most likely multi-polar, since after Dorvik's diminishment, it was the B&L. We're now in a world after Lourenne's - single rule just like Dorvik - diminishment.

The real question is: who are the new hegemons?

And the kicker: who's the ultimate one 100+ years from now?

[GreekIdiot]

September 5714 ~ Prof. Jacob Yap'er, Neset Institute of Yishelem
A take on the unending and inconsequential merits of "our continent for us" foreign policies

Excluding a rather self-serving deviation on this foreign policy by the leading Kerisian forces from Egelion - after all, one cannot subsequently maintain the facade that masks interventionism in not 1, but 2 continents, by adopting a "Keris for Kerisians" mandate that simply falls short with Kerisians intervening in Seleya and Dovani - the resurgence of this rather curious and fatally flawed foreign policy rooted in cross-continental identity seems to mark a change of pace.

Or the wrong direction, for many.

~

Under the shadow of Dorvik's foggy reign in Artania and beyond, this continental-identity policy was all but absent across most, if not all continents, with the exception of Kalistan standing as a beacon against globalism in North Seleya, Ananto and the Anantonese Ocean (and extreme isolationism).

Beiteynu's rise proved the absence: there was neither a "Majatra for Majatrans" nor "Artania for Artanians" in the early years of 5200, 5300 and even reaching to 5400.

Deltaria's rather hasty attempts at a Majatran identity were cut short and abandoned (back then). Its recent joint attempts with Istalia in reinvigorating Southeast Majatra lacked that inherent "Majatra for Majatrans" identity, as well - although the effort was cut short and abandoned by Deltaria (again).

Dorvik fought back against Beiteynu's tendrils in Artania - which proves the point that "Artania for Artanians" was nonexistent, considering the continent rallied, traded and allied with Yishelem, instead.

Majatra was the same: even the MSCO, and even up to the war with Lourenne, was not about "Majatra for Majatrans" - even the (re-)rise of the Jelbosphere in recent centuries doesn't mark any significant change, although the position, and MATO's, is strictly Artanian-Majatran and mostly West Majatran.

The Treaty of Altatepec by Lourenne (and Beiteynu through its surrender) was the first glimpse of a "Seleya for Seleyans"; but it was short, considering that Canrille was practically reigning over half the continent by the leadership of Lourenne - a Dovanian nation. The hiccups observed by Kalistan essentially all but allowing Kerisian intervention in Rildanor sealed the fate of the motto: it would just serve as a fancy campaign policy in international affairs. Luthori's ties with Mordusia and the recent bloc-formation between Keris and North Seleya practically makes Seleya just a geographical notion.

~

Which leads us to Dovani - Xsampa's efforts have been noteworthy, however, the recent multi-channel rush towards a "Dovani for Dovanians" collectivism bears the marks of Deltaria's 2 attempts to hastily rally supranational formations, only to prove unable to sustain them.

~

"Our continent for us" is a statement of colonial and meddling pasts. 

1. Artania remembered it after the fall of Dorvik and the rise of Artanian nations against Beiteynu - and it's currently absent, as the continent's leaders continue to look outwards (Luthori, N&D, Dundorf)
   
2. Majatra, when the Yeudi reign was over, but it remains flickering - once in the Southeast, now in the Northwest, largely standing as a backup notion against outside forces
   
3. Seleya, the most cross-continental of all, only through the isolationist sparks of Kalistan
   
4. Keris, despite its almost continental government, has yet to even hint at it
   

~

Which raises the question:

Is a "Dovani for Dovanians" the right direction?

Or does Dovani need a "Dovani Century for All", for the first time in its history?

Defence, again?

Or offense?