Tukarali

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#Valruzia

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Sérgio Bastos, Political commentator at Espelho - Ladies and gentleman. A full term of a democratically elected government has come to a close. Doesnt it feel weird to say that out loud? All those years under autocracy and we have finally succeeded in succesfully introducing democracy to our country. To celebrate this joyous occasion and report on these election results i am here with political commentator Rúben Moura and former mayor of Vajo Luísa Rego, thank you both for joining us. "It is a pleasure Sérgio", "Likewise". This election was a contentious one. We saw polls come closer together in the last few weeks as Rosa unexpectedly managed to rise in popularity. What attributed to this rise you think Rúben? "Undoudebtly it was the star power of Senator Machado. She rocked crowds with her humanitarian message, striving for a fairer and warmer Tukarali. She blasted the PDP for not using our democracy to enact radical change and right the wrongs of the past. Her rallies were something to behold." One of the last polls, as i can remember, had her up by 2% against Caetano, i wonder if she really does win this election. Anything to add Luísa? "Well, not really, i think Machado has a real power to relate to the people. I doubt that even if she loses, this would be the last we see of her."
 
Well we are about to find out. With 98% of the vote in for the presidential election we are here to make a prediction. With 49.6% of the vote, Alex Caetano has won a first round of elections. We predict that a runoff vote will be held in one month time as Rosa candidate Camila Zanetti Machado wins 49% of the vote. Remaining votes were distributed amongst several other candidates. This is a shocking result, with president Caetano winning 4 years ago with nearly 67% of the vote in the first round. While thus retaining first place, he has a serious challenger in Machado who will face him in a head to head for the second round. Rúben: "this is shocking, really, we knew the president's approval rating was low, but he was still favoured to win reelection in the first round. While victory is still possible, any day extra for Machado to campaign will hurt Caetano." Luísa: "I agree. President Caetano has been blamed for being relatively inactive in his first term. His latest visit to Tukarali striking a security agreement did do him good, but not good enough. I am anxious to see the result on a party level." 

Well you dont need to wait long. With the presidential prediction we are here to also release our exit poll for the chamber. With 96% of votes for the chamber counted, we predict that...........the PDP will retain its majority by the slimmest of margins, winning 75 of the 150 seats, down 6 seats from last election. While this would tie it with the oppossition, the oppossition is also not able to vote out a incumbent government or Prime Minister. This means that either Pinho remains as Prime Minister, or a newly elected President Caetano can appoint a new Prime Minister that can not be voted out. This creates a effective majority, with the PDP having to be creative in trying to pass new legislation. Rúben: "Again whats notable here is the rise of Rosa. The party has won 21 seats compared to 4 years ago in this exit poll, also taking seats from parties like the MDV and completely wiping out the Radical Party, which loses all seats in the lower house. While a good result for the PDP, the real winner is definitely Rosa."

Lets take a quick look on how those constituencies filled up tonight.



And that concludes the election so far. But we are not done. Next month, the country will head to the polls once more to elect their President and we will be right with you to give you those results. Luísa: "This election was a succesfull one, with our democratic prowess on full display. Gone are the times of a single party dictating our every move. We are in a competitive era, and we are all in for it. Its good to see that Kalistani election observers also called the election clean, releasing their final recommendations after the presidential election is concluded. It shows that our newly build democratic process is resilient and working."

We at Espelho thank you all for watching and conclude by saying: until next time. Good night. 

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President Alex Caetano has been reelected President of the Republic, winning against popular senator Camila Zanetti Machado of Rosa. With 51.2% of the vote, he beat his opponent by a rather slim margin. Machado won the remaining 48.2% of the vote. This secures Caetano a second term of 4 years and keeps the PDP in all levels of power, even if by the slimmest of margins. Last month the party managed to barely cling onto the chamber, winning 75 seats which is seen as a effective majority. President Caetano has announced that he seeks to keep Pinho as his Prime Minister, hoping to maintain a sense of stability in a country still in transition. 

Senator Machado has conceded defeat, giving a heartwarming speech on the importance of our newfound democratic institutions. She will continue her work as senator. With the senate its term expiring next year. Many within Rosa have called on Machado to take over party leadership, but the "ideal candidate" has so far refused to speculate on any next steps in her political carreer. With the victory of Caetano the PDP maintains power, but will have to figure out a new strategy if it seeks to maintain its power for after this new term. Caetano thanked his supporters for their faith in him, announcing that "i will deliver on your faith, i will secure our newfound freedoms and work with our international partners in strengthening Tukarali and Seleya as a whole."

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Kalistani Election monitors certify Tukarese Elections
"Mostly Clean," "Some discrepancies noted", said monitors

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In what is seen as a significant upset, Rosa has gained at least 400 local seats in last nights local elections, ensuring a additional 3 seats in the senate through the indirect election happening next week. The ruling PDP in its turn has lost at least 200 local seats, losing 3 seats in the senate. The PDP and Rosa are now even in the upper chamber, with the PDP at 14 seats and Rosa at 14. Both independents and the MDV lost seats, with the MDV reduced to just 4 which continues its political decline. Interestingly, the Party of Regions, consisting of various regional parties, has more then doubled its seat share to 6 seats (up from two), which shows a trend of regionalized politics gaining traction.

The result is a major blow to the ruling PDP, which already had issues in finding majorities in the senate. With their losses in the different provinces and municipalities, the PDP is likely to find it extremely difficult if not impossible to find majorities for their proposals. While at least 10 of the remaining independents are in support of the PDP, that only gives the ruling party 25 seats where at least 30 are needed in order to maintain control of different committees and have a strong position in the senate. PDP Senate leader Tiago Morais Guedes has indicated his potential willingness towards striking a support agreement with the Party of Regions, but its leader Dahil Ramírez has already openly stated that significant concessions need to be made in strengthening provincial authority, concessions the Senate leader wil not be able to make without support from Prime Minister Pinho. If a deal is struck however, the PDP will manage to find the smallest majority possible for its proposals, creating the need for discipline and continious dialogue in trying to keep the senate in order. 

Rosa senate leader and former presidential candidate Camila Zanetti Machado has celebrated a strong performance, hoping to push the senate towards more progressive stances, "challenging the incumbent government at every turn when it comes to welfare, equality for all and fair wages." Machado, a popular figure within Rosa, has already indicated her willingness to become General-Secretary of the party, a position seen as a springboard for the position of Prime Minister. 

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The Tukarese car brand "Tuzda" has announced one of its first crossovers, the Tuzda M1. The new model is seen as a way for Tuzda to conquer the car market in Tukarali and possibly neighbouring countries. Tuzda is already known for its CX1 and CX2. These two models are a cost effective hatchback and a family SUV, which the company has used to build a reliable base of customers in Tukarali. The company, owned by entrepeneur Arnaldo Alvarez Guerra, is one of the first relative succesfull automobile manufacturers native to Tukarali. The company was founded just 2 years after the fall of the Maldonado regime, lifting on the back of liberalizing reforms by the new PDP government. It managed to become a reliable and welll liked car brand, and the only Tukarese car brand to survive its initial years. 

Now, with the M1, the company seeks to make further gains on the domestic markets and potentially move abroad, eying Valruzia as a place for expansion. Tuzda CEO Guerra already indicated that he hopes the PDP government of Prime Minister Pinho may negotiate a deal with Valruzia that grants companies like his room to expand there. Currently Valruzia has a protectionist economy, being notoriously hard to settle for foreign companies like Tuzda. 

The new Tuzda M1 is a mid-range car, mostly targetted with the rising middle class in Tukarali. It will enter dealerships next month but may already be pre-ordered starting tommorow.

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JUVIDAD - In a room filled with people of all ages and backgrounds, Gustavo Cabral spoke. A former banker turned social worker, Cabral was clearly passionate about social justice and a "better Tukarali". But as he spoke it became clear that his message was more nuanced. "We need to solve a great many social issues in this country, stemming from a sincere lack of empathy that has persisted, despite the end of autocracy. But we must not divert to radical solutions, instead looking for opportunities to implement tested ideas."

Cabral would go on to speak nearly 50 minutes to the room of 150 people, vouching for low taxation, social reforms, regulation of the market and investments in education and innovation. The crowd cheered, before the night would turn into a networking opportunity for those present. Cabral is the leader of the new Liberais Sociais (Social Liberals), a think tank turned political party that has surged in the polls in the last few weeks. Using the relative unpopularity of the incumbent government, it has eaten away at PDP numbers as well as the MDV and minor parties, now polling at nearly 18% of the popular vote. A large part of the appeal is Cabral himself, who has a inspiring backstory, but political scientists also believe the "LS" speaks to weaknesses in the PDP, specifically on social policies. 

Where the LS takes over liberal positions on the economy, it takes a more left-leaning approach on social issues, believing in more government intervention when it comes to health and social services. The criticism on the past two PDP governments has been largely the same: their policies are cold and many were left in the dark during the Tukarese transition to a market economy. This transition has been a mixed bag, with the economy growing but slower then its neighbours. Unemployment and inflation meanwhile remain a problem, and homelesness is on the rise. These factors combined have people longing for something different. While elections are still some time away, if Cabral can manage to continue his steady rise, the PDP fears it might be in for a major electoral defeat.